This will be an interesting day to see if the breakout will be confirmed as real or confirmed as false. We are back testing the previous levels of resistance and without a bounce from these levels, then I doubt the sector can continue to move higher. The news this morning is not helping as there […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Sector strength continued and is clearly outperforming the broader market. While we have seen this happen for a couple days before, this feels more like a real breakout. Ideally, we would need to pullback and test the previous resistance and have it act as support to confirm the move but I suspect it would hold. […]
Dave-Trading – June 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 12 Biotech Update
Nothing too exciting in terms of market action yesterday. There was some relatively outperformance of large caps versus small caps but that was mainly due to the gene therapy carnage. This is once again going to be an interesting test of sentiment in that space. Gene therapy companies have been pretty much Teflon in that […]
June 5 Biotech Update
We had our typical post ASCO selloff even after a morning attempt at a move higher. Even the ASCO winners ended up getting hit in the sell off. This was a sadly predictable reaction often gives us some nice buying opportunities. I would not rush in today as the ASCO selloff is typically not a […]
June 4 Biotech Update
Despite the lack of any real thesis changing news, ASCO seemed to be fairly typical. There will be a couple of big winners but more losers as you have both bad data and data that was good but not good enough for inflated expectations. Given the dearth of major data, I wonder if there will […]
June 1 Biotech Update
Happy ASCO days. The first day tends to be slow as news as it is information sessions, although later in the day we get some important CART data. In any case, by Monday we should have some interesting data to dissect. 1. CELG and BLUE have their BCMA CART data this evening. Expectations are high […]
May 29 Biotech Update
You would think that after a long weekend there would be more news but it is a slow start to the week. Perhaps it is related to the upcoming ASCO conference. Unfortunately, it looks like macro might again grip the sector as another Euro based crisis has arisen with fears of an impending Italian crisis. […]
May 25 Biotech Update
We end the week as we started the week with not a lot of news and basically in a holding pattern for ASCO. Hopefully the sector does better today than it did on Monday and perhaps the anticipation of a long weekend is enough to get some buyers interested but we are certainly entering the […]
May 24 Biotech Update
There is a not a lot of news today so I will keep this short. The sector itself seems to be struggling as is par for the course. It is not accelerating to the downside, which is good but it is certainly not doing anything particularly bullish. Perhaps we start to see a move into […]
May 22 Biotech Update
Well, the sector did not do great yesterday. It started off as expected which was following the market higher but lagging a little and then it just went downhill all day. That was a little surprising as there is ASCO coming with decent data and it is a little early for the post-ASCO sell-off. Perhaps […]
Dave-Trading – June 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
May 21 Biotech Update
So it looks like the trade war with China is off, which should be good for the market in general. Whether that risk on appetite will translate into the biotech sector is another question as they are not a real beneficiary of the lack of a trade deal. That being said they certainly sold off […]
May 17 Biotech Update
Some interesting moves and data coming out of the ASCO abstracts. There are some questions answered with these abstracts, although more questions remain unanswered. I suspect that many of the morning moves in these stocks will be moderated by the end of the day as ultimately there is nothing thesis changing that can come out […]
May 15 Biotech Update
Drug pricing will not go away and I think that is going to be true going forward. We should not expect it to go away and at this point, one could argue that industry valuations have reset to the point that the continuation of this risk is priced into the stocks. This does not mean […]
May 14 Biotech Update
Not much going on this morning. The big feared Trump drug pricing speech was a giant nothing burger and anyone who has paid attention the past 18 months could have predicted it. There is nothing that congress is going to pass and there are limited options that the administration can do by itself. In addition, […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Again not a day with a lot of news. There was a macro trade yesterday with the American withdrawal from the Iran deal as well as some heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. That macro hit the market a little but seemed to really impact the sector with the risk off. I suspect the Iran […]
May 7 Biotech Update
It is certainly a slow start to the week. We should get a sense of the underlying strength of the sector this week as the large cap earnings are past and news flow decreases. Of course, we still have the Trump drug pricing speech coming at some point but that continues to be pushed back […]
Star Wars Day Biotech Update
We end the week on an OK set of news. It could certainly have been worse but nothing that is likely to fundamentally revalue the sector or reverse the chop. 1. SRPT finally reported the negative trend vote that most expected. As I also expected, there was a lot of notes talking about the expected […]
May 3 Biotech Update
There was a relative lull in the news yesterday and today but I would argue that the sector held up pretty well despite the GILD miss. That either means that GILD is less meaningful for the sector or that the drumbeat of disappointing earnings has priced in pretty negative views of the sector. In any […]
