The sector continues to hang out at these levels and my sense is that the longer we wait to go, the more likely we consolidate the move higher. I do find it a little odd that we have not seen a more clear move (up or down) but it likely means that this level will […]
February 15th Biotech Update
Not surprisingly we are in a post earnings lull. While there are still earnings being posted, the bulk of the major ones have been reported. We are also seeing the expected uptick in secondaries, which is later than usual as a result of the government shutdown. In any case, there is nothing particularly sector moving […]
February 12 Biotech Update
We have some interesting news today (positive and negative) with some interesting read through. I still think the base case is that the sector is in a range until proven otherwise and there is nothing in the price action to indicate anything different. 1. The biggest news is obviously the GILD miss on NASH. This […]
February 1st Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing in a way I was not expecting. Perhaps there is a bigger underlying bid than I thought. Perhaps the dovish turn in the Fed has put risk on again. In either case, it looks like $80 on the XBI acted as support and now the question is […]
January 25 Biotech Update
Another day and another lackluster pharma earnings. In some sense, it is good to see this have limited impact on the sector but on the other hand this is certainly not a bullish fundamental situation to see growth slowing in pharma. Clearly next week will be more important as we get into the large cap […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Another day and another chance to grind away at these levels. Yesterday was pretty weak and it will be interesting to see how the sector reacts. If we have an inside day, then perhaps the near term trend remains the grind but if we break below yesterday’s low then it is another sign that the […]
January 23 Biotech Update
A short note today as there is not much going on. We have earnings starting next week so the pace of news should pick up but at this point, I suspect the sector more or less trades in line with the broader markets until we get more company and sector specific news. 1. JNJ hurt […]
January 22 Biotech Update
Certainly not the best start to the week but it remains early. As long as the XBI remains above $80 I would not worry too much about this being the long awaited correction but this is certainly price action that one needs to watch. I think today offers the strongest test of the recent move […]
Celgene Update
Real quick post on CELG. I sold my position for $86.28. I wanted to lock in profits and while there is still a nice gap between current price and deal price, I do not want to risk the profits. BMY call options have been hot to end the week and there is a risk that […]
January 15 Biotech Update
We are clearly not out of the woods for a correction but we should also remember that corrections can occur through price or time. In other words, most think of a correction as a retracement of a move higher and while that is most common, it can also occur through time where prices grind in […]
January 9 Biotech Update
The sector move seems to be losing some steam. This is not unexpected nor bad as these overbought conditions need to be reset. The real key going forward is not how much further this move can stretch higher but whether or not we can form a lower high. That will be absolutely key as a […]
January 7 Biotech Update
This is one hell of a start for biotechs this year. M&A and good data are back. Of course, there is a bias in JPM week to present good news early, so I would be surprised to see this rate of positive news to continue all week but this is certainly a great start and […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Holy crap, BMY is buying CELG. This is one hell of a way to start the XLRN is aNew Year and JPM week. It is unfortunate for the sector that the broader markets are so weak otherwise this would likely have had a bigger positive impact. Hopefully the AAPL related weakness is fleeting and we […]
December 31 Biotech Update
The selling has been relentless but we are now seeing a nice rally/dead cat bounce. While one has to be very careful with any rally as countertrend rallies in bear markets can be face ripping, there are some nice signs for the biotech sector. While there is some reason for optimism one still has to […]
December 17 Biotech Update
It really is looking like we are entering a bear market and those sharp rallies that we have seen are simply the sharp counter trend rallies one sees in bear markets. I am not completely convinced that a bear market is coming but I think we are close. As long as the economy remains out […]
December 4 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day but not as broad based as one would have hoped. Today will be telling in that the confusion over the China “trade deal” has only amplified leading to early pressure. Ideally, the sector would shrug off early weakness and build on yesterday’s strength to end the day green once again. […]
November 28 Biotech Update
Yesterday as a bad day for the sector as it was red with a positive broader market backdrop. To be fair it was a rather odd day in the sector as the large caps also grossly outperformed the SMID space, which was held down by some large losses. I am not quite willing to see […]
November 26 Biotech Update
After a nice long holiday break, I figured there might be some more news to start the week but apparently not. The sector is off to a good start but it seems macro driven in that it is simply following the broader markets higher. As long as the broader market remains positive, I suspect the […]
November 20 Biotech Update
I guess we did not get the turn around that could have been a positive sign. There is still a chance for a turnaround Tuesday as we gap lower at the open but the market feels pretty heavy at this point. There just seems to be no interest in buying and/or holding anything. On the […]
