We seem to have quickly moved on from the rate and CPI scare. The sector bounced back from what looked to be the bottom of a range to the upper end of a range. I went from paying attention to $86 for a breakdown to now the $94.40 range for a potential breakout. I am […]
July 14th Biotech Update
Yesterday was an odd day. We started off consistently strong and ended up quite weak. There were two pieces of news in the afternoon that happened close to the same time: two of the larger California school districts going online for the fall and the US rejecting all of China’s South China Sea claims. I […]
Another Look at TPTX
With the entrance of RET inhibitor TPX-0046 into P1/2 last November, fast moving Turning Point Therapeutics now has a full slate of 3 clinical candidates. Soon, another ALK inhibitor is expected to join the fray. Pipeline: The pivotal repotrectinib studies in ROS1 and TRK are ongoing with interim results from some registrational cohorts expected during […]
Initiating: Turning Point Therapeutics
San Diego based Turning Point Therapeutics is an oncology focused biotech that completed a successful IPO in April this year, raising about $190M with pricing at $18/sh. As the stock continued to climb, TPTX quickly filed for a secondary on September 3rd, adding another $200M to its cash hoard. The company is now very well […]
August 13 Biotech News
We are back into the old pattern. Good biotech news that moves the individual stock but has limited read through. We have had a couple of these days where the sector grew stronger as the day went on but that usually required a lessening of the macro concerns. That could be the case today as […]
July 26 Biotech Update
The market seems odd to me. Earnings so far have been good and the individual stocks are going higher on the earnings and holding onto the gains. The rest of the sector is struggling. Usually earnings will drive the sector higher or lower and rarely do you see good earnings with these many large caps […]
June 17 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week with merger Monday coming back the sector albeit with names we were not expecting. The XBI has been in a nice tight range and while we are still in that range this morning, I would look for a breakout about $84. I am not exactly calling for […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Guess what? The macro continues to dominate but it might actually work for us this week. If Mexico can work out a deal with the US, then the market is set to move a lot higher. If not, then expect more downside. Given the amount of disruption that the tariffs would cause, I suspect a […]
November 15 Biotech Update
Today is an important day for the sector. We are at very long term support (the 200 week MA) that has rarely been breached (occasionally but never in a sustained manner). At levels that should provide some support we get some partnership news that is positive for SMID (it seems like partnerships are the new […]
November 7 Biotech Update
The midterm elections are over and now we have a couple hour break before the 2020 presidential campaigning begins. The split congress is likely positive for the markets as they tend to favor gridlock over one party rule but I think any bounce or sell-off is not going to be lasting or meaningful as the […]
October 9 Biotech Update
It was certainly not a great start to the week and the sector really needs a turnaround Tuesday to pan out. Interestingly, the pharma and large cap bios did OK yesterday as perhaps a flight to safety trade. The IBB seems right at the bottom of its range and has the potential to find support […]
October 1 Biotech Update
Yet again another weekend is passed and yet again there are no major M&A. Yet again, it no longer seems to matter. A little different this morning is not a major outperformance by the large caps but it is still early. There is at least some little bit of news to start the week but […]
September 26 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a little odd. It was generally a good day for the sector but a lot of companies had very large ranges for no apparent reason and on no news. Usually you can see those swings at turning points but it seems odd to be happening essentially in the middle of a range bound […]
August 9th Biotech Update
The chop continues. I just do not see anything definitive in either direction and am coming around to the belief that we are not going to see anything definitive soon. I suspect we bounce between 113 and 120 on the IBB for a bit and then come the fall we see a break with volume […]
August 1 Biotech Update
The sector recovered a little yesterday from last week’s sell-off but ideally we would need to see the sector break into new highs. It seems highly likely that the sector tests the recent highs and the price action at that point is likely to be a strong signal of underlying strength. Given the fundamentals and […]
Dave Trading July 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 25 Biotech Update
This will be an interesting day to see if the breakout will be confirmed as real or confirmed as false. We are back testing the previous levels of resistance and without a bounce from these levels, then I doubt the sector can continue to move higher. The news this morning is not helping as there […]
Dave-Trading – June 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 18 Biotech Update
Nothing new to start the week outside of a pretty weak market. I am not sure what the catalyst outside of an extended market but it looks again like the sector is hitting resistance and unable to break out. Perhaps there is continued disappoint in term of the lack of deals but regardless of the […]
June 15 Biotech Update
EHA is here and there will be some updates that are of interest but for the most part, I do not see it as having a fundamental effect on the sector. The XBI is flirting with breaking above resistance but it is struggling at what looks like the third attempt to break higher at these […]
