Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work. Will perhaps try again tomorrow. I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased. In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate. All of the negatives for the market remain. The President had an […]
March 10th Biotech Update
We open green, which I am not sure is the best to start a counter trend rally. Keep in mind that with volatility this high, a 3% move is not actually that big or meaningful. Usually one would see a 3% move in a day as a strong signal but at these levels of volatility, […]
January 13 Biotech Update
It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
January 10th Biotech Update
We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]
January 6 Biotech Update
I am glad to be back and will be in my usual daily update routine for the foreseeable future. I did not miss a ton of news but we certainly will have some soon enough with JPM next week. Before I left the sector was in a clear uptrend that was unbroken and I noted […]
October 22 Biotech Update
I believe it is safe to say that we have some news today. I strongly suspect the news will be viewed as positive and should drive the sector higher. Let us dive into this news. Aducanumab work! Sort of. Perhaps. I cannot think of a drug that failed futility only to come back later and […]
September 10 Biotech Update
Surprise. The sector is weak. I am a little surprised that we are not see a faster sell off as clearly there is no momentum and we have broken support. This really seems like a nice and orderly sell off and this is not necessarily good. The selling does not end when there is no […]
August 26 Biotech Update
Market starts the week higher but I do not trust it as there is the old saying that markets never bottom on Fridays. To be fair futures were down a lot and have rallied before the market opened but I remain suspicious of the green open. The ideal scenario for a robust turnaround would be […]
June 25 Biotech Update
So that was unexpected. First, the market is down and sector is higher. Second, we got another large merger to digest. Obviously I will focus on the deal and its implications. 1. I need to go back and listen the conference call so there might be some additional insight later this week but this deal […]
June 24 Market Update
The sector is in an interesting spot. Tensions with Iran remain elevated but did not escalate, which should lead to a risk on move and while the market was tepidly higher the sector is clearly underperforming. Usually risk-on benefits the sector and while one could argue that the elevated macro tensions remain a drag, there […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
May 1 Biotech Update
The sector continues to lag. What I see as a little odd is that pharma appears to be outperforming biotech. If Medicare for All was going to collapse the US drug market, why would pharma be immune and be doing well? It is an odd disconnect and speaks to something else going on in the […]
April 25th Biotech Update
Yesterday really ended up offering no real direction. We could not quite rally but we also did not quite collapse. Everything that I talked about yesterday about the trading of the sector also applies today given the lack of clarity. I do think it is telling that these large cap earnings are basically being greeted […]
April 2nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be setting up for a breakout(down). Since the gap higher in late February, it looks like we are getting higher lows and lower highs. The range is narrowing and we should soon be breaking out of the narrowing range and that is going to generate the next significant move. I still […]
March 28 Biotech Update
Yesterday was not a great day for the sector but we seem to be bouncing back today. It appears that the next move will not be easy in that this churn and volatility is going to be difficult to play. I still think we go with the trend (which is higher) and ignore the near […]
March 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a nice little rally in the sector, which given the sharp pullback was not completely unexpected. The more interesting question is whether that rally can be built upon over the next couple days. The sentiment from Friday and Monday was so negative that many are likely expecting more selling. That is certainly possible […]
March 12 Biotech Update
I am finally back and the sector appears to have pulled back a little. I do not see this a particularly bad pull back as it looks to have closed a gap and bounced off of it. In my mind, it appears to be setting up as a successful test of the recent breakout assuming […]
February 28th Biotech Update
The sector continues to hang out at these levels and my sense is that the longer we wait to go, the more likely we consolidate the move higher. I do find it a little odd that we have not seen a more clear move (up or down) but it likely means that this level will […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Resistance is acting like resistance. It looked early that we might be peaking above it but clearly that is not the case. These sort of false breakouts (and breakdowns) are killers in range bound markets as it can get one to trade too early. My mantra in these scenarios is that the sector will be […]
February 12 Biotech Update
We have some interesting news today (positive and negative) with some interesting read through. I still think the base case is that the sector is in a range until proven otherwise and there is nothing in the price action to indicate anything different. 1. The biggest news is obviously the GILD miss on NASH. This […]
