There certainly seems to be a trend in earnings. The impact of the pandemic is still being felt and if we think about it, the 1Q21 was basically peak cases in the third wave and so it should also mark the peak impact. All that being said I suspect most investors are going to want […]
April 26th Biotech Update
An OK start to the week in terms of being green. It looks like we have broken the lower high trends and it would be great to get confirmation of that this week and even make a push at $140 in the XBI. I know it is easy to dump on the sector but honestly […]
April 23rd Biotech Update
So close. We had some really good short term momentum that was going to clearly break above that recent lower high and maybe even get us a challenge of the $140 level. Then the news hit about the capital gains tax increase proposal and the whole market took a hit. On the positive, we did […]
March 29th Biotech Update
It seems like there is a lot of talk about a major Asian hedge fund blowing up causing forced liquidation and market dislocations. While it does not seem to be the case that this involves a lot of biotech companies, it does appear tech related and anything this massive will have ripples throughout the market. […]
March 25th Biotech Update
It is never easy, I guess. It is always darkest before the dawn. I am sure there are other phrases that could apply to the market at this point but the fact is that the sector is clearly struggling. We had the chance to set a higher high and perhaps get some momentum but that […]
March 24th Biotech Update
You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point. Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean. I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility. It […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Is the recent price action in the sector bullish or bearish? It is really difficult to call it at this point. It is completely consistent with a bull market for a sector to pullback and consolidate a move higher. That being said the sector has conditioned us over the past month or so that pullbacks […]
March 17th Biotech Update
What is going on with the sector? It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out. Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down. Obviously that is possible and we need to […]
February 24th Biotech Update
So it has been a difficult start to the week for sure but we did get a little bit of reversal yesterday. It was more true for the market in general than for the sector but we did not close on the lows which I think is pretty important. Obviously we want to see green […]
February 4th Biotech Update
The market seems to have calmed down and now we are entering the grind higher phase (so it seems). I would not argue with you if you were to tell me that the market is overvalued and we are in the late stages of the bull market. I would note, however, that these late stages […]
January 21st Biotech Update
We seem to be in a lull in terms of news. Certainly we are drifting higher with the market which is good but I do not expect any thesis changing news or even stock moving news until earnings start popping up in a week or two. I would think that next week we start to […]
January 11th Biotech Update
Yikes, what a boring start to JPM. I thought last year was sort of slow news and no big events sort of JPM but this is even worse. There is nothing bad that has been announced but if we thought that JPM would spark some life into the sector with big news, then we are […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Volume and the market news should start to pick up this week as people get back from the holiday but keep in mind that JPM is next week, so I would not expect a ton of biotech news. Most of the biotech news should be speculation heading into JPM and the news that could be […]
December 28th Biotech Update
As expected the news is slowing down and there is not a ton of news to talk about today if there is really anything news worthy. Given the lack of news I suspect that the sector and markets will continue the low volume seasonal trade, which means a bullish bias. Perhaps there is an added […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So far we do not have an ASH selloff, which is nice to see. I think in general we remain with some seasonal and broader market tailwinds and that should take us through JPM in January. In fact, we are probably getting close to the M&A speculation time but remember that last year was actually […]
November 23 Biotech Update
The market dynamics remain the same. We are entering what tends to be a seasonally positive period of the year, which might add some tailwind to the broader market. While I still think the market is going to focus on the prospects of the vaccine coming next year as opposed to the out of control […]
November 16th Biotech Update
Another start to the week with some more vaccine announcements (positive). It was good to see more positive vaccine data but it does not change the dynamic that I see with the market. There appears to be a real light at the end of the tunnel but the path to the end will be very […]
November 5th Biotech Update
While we clearly do not have a clear winner from the election, it at least looks like the market has decided where the election is going. If there was uncertainty over the outcome, then the market would not have rallied and volatility would not have dropped. Given the pace of vote counting, it looks like […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The election is (sort of) over. While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes. The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican. I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]
October 30 Biotech Update
I said that a kick was possible for the sector and it could be pulling one off. Yesterday ended up better than I expected and was the start of that save but the market remains in a precarious position with anxiety over the election potentially overwhelming everything today. Of course, the consensus seems to be […]
