The sector is being the sector. It really seems to be coiling for a big move as the range has been pretty tight. I think the concern is that the broader market might be due for a pullback and given how poor the sector has been what is going to happen if the broader market […]
October 27th Biotech Update
Would you be surprised to hear that we are basically trudging along in a sentiment mire where everyone hates the sector but its not making new lows? This really feels like a sector that has had everyone who wanted to sell sell-out their positions. We know that the sector is very underweighted but if we […]
October 25th Biotech Update
The sector continues its muddle. We are approaching earnings seasons but there are not any real launches that are exciting and M&A has picked up a little but clearly has not really sparked interest. It is a broken record to talk about the sentiment and how poor it has been. It is at the point […]
October 14th Biotech Update
A good morning so far. It is certainly nice to see and ideally this is where we start to build some momentum. We seem to have had countless false starts but if you take a step back it almost looks as if this entire year (since about March) has been a range between $120 and […]
October 13th Biotech Update
Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive. We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down. We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad. […]
September 30th Biotech Update
What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector. The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high. I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]
September 29th Biotech Update
The sector is hostage to the broader market at this point. I think if there was at least a neutral broader market environment then the sector would look and feel a lot better. Between the Evergrande issue and now what is probably fears over the debt ceiling (yet again we have to talk about this), […]
September 27th Biotech Update
We did not get our buyout but certainly have the buyout speculation in high gear. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the rumor but no deal. One would have normally thought the rumor and eventual deal would juice the sector but have we gotten to the point where the speculation […]
September 24th Biotech Update
It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it. I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher. I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but its early and hopefully we can get some momentum. One potential issue is that we have not really had much M&A to follow up on the TRIL deal that generated excitement in the sector. I do not think we are there yet but at some point if […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news and the sector is in a precarious spot. It had a chance to breakout and start to form a new bull trend but it failed. That failure does not mean a new bear trend but it did mean a test of the recent lows, which is where we are today. […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
July 29th Biotech Update
The sector got the bounce yesterday and we really need it to continue for at least a couple of days. It is not clear if this was simply a technical bounce or related to the generally positive earnings but it is certainly nice to see and will be better if it is not a single […]
July 26th Biotech Update
It should be a busy week with some earnings and the Fed meeting. Of course there is nothing to start the week so we are back to the negative bias in the sector, which is not surprising. I still think the path of least resistance at this point is lower but with the potential of […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
June 19th Biotech Update
I think the sector is setting up well if we can break above the $138 level in the near term. Yes, we had a couple days of weakness earlier this week but the recent strength (modest as it has been) is setting up that weakness as a potential higher low. This become more likely if […]
May 28th Biotech Update
We have had 3 green days in a row (assuming that today remains green). This is sadly the best the sector has done in awhile. If you look really hard you can see a mini uptrend with this being the first higher high after a higher low. I call it mini as it is still […]
May 20th Biotech Update
I sort of want to say that the sector is in no man’s land. We are not challenging key levels lower or higher and there does not seem to be a real bias one way or another. This is not necessarily a bad thing given where we have been and the struggles the sector has […]
May 19th Biotech Update
We do not have a ton of news but it has picked up a little this week, which is nice. It is also nice that the news has generally been positive (although not universally so). It is nice to see that the positive news is being treated as such (having positive effects on stock prices) […]
May 14th Biotech Update
What a weird series of days. It is like the sector is an inverse ETf with the broader markets. I really thought we would be able to move with the broader market but I guess not. I think the relationship with the broader market is like just an odd quirk and what is really more […]
