News is starting to pick up as we approach JPM. This should continue through the weekend. There has not really been anything dramatic today as these early birds tend to be companies that would be overwhelmed by the bigger announcements expected closer to JPM. All in all, the net-net of news this morning has been […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
October 10 Biotech Update
It is a solid positive reaction to ESMO across the sector (with some notable exceptions). While there are number of potential topics, I want to focus on one as it has very broad implications that we need to watch not just in the near term but longer term. 1. BMY front line data were an […]
October 4 Biotech Update
Today is certainly a better start. It seems that the sector is trading to a certain extent on macro issues with the DB concerns leading to risk on versus risk off action. The sector will always be a victim to large risk off moves, so if the DB situation resolves I would not be surprised […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be quieting down a little and perhaps a little bit of consolidation of the recent move is in the cards. All in all, however, it seems like a productive week for the sector and confirms my base case that the likely path moving forward is higher (with the obvious pullbacks sprinkle […]
September 13 Biotech Update
I was a little late heading into the office this morning and had not been following the news and so I was a little surprised to see the market down so much. This is oddly schizophrenic on really little news. Down big on Friday on a rate hike tantrum (a little dramatic but understandable). Up […]
September 12 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week. Stocks are starting off stronger than most expected (including me) with the sector slightly outperforming. We have some news to talk about but not a ton and I do not think either are sector moving. 1. We do have a merger Monday with HZNP buying RPTP. I think it […]
September 9 Biotech Update
Not a good day today (seems like rising rates freak out). I may not have been paying very close attention to the market but this seems like a drop on no meaningful market data or information (market tends to throw periodic fits when they increase the odds of a rate hike). The broader market seems […]
September 2 Biotech Update
While usually the last Friday before the long Labor Day weekend is not meaningful, today might be critical for the sector. We are sitting at support and Clinton released a plan to curtail high drug prices. If we hold support with this news, then it sends a strong signal that the sector is not going […]
August 10 Biotech Update
The market continues to consolidate and I expect this trend to continue over the near term. If I am correct that this is simply a consolidation in a new bull market for the sector (and it is difficult to make that claim given how bad the sector has been but at this point I am […]
August 8 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be struggling a little but it would not be stunning to see some underperformance and consolidation after the recent run. We continue to get earnings headlines but the vast majority of sector moving calls and earnings are passed. 1. EPZM reported earnings and there is nothing new in it, so it […]
August 5 Biotech Update
I was not going to write today but snuck into office with my kids in tow for a quick note on BMY. 1. This was a major surprise and critically important for BMY. ISI wrote that they believed the first line NSCLC market was $7B-$8B of the $12B 2021 opdivo estimates. That is pure speculation […]
August 2 Biotech Update
Not surprisingly we are having a consolidation/pullback. The sector has been on a tear and nothing goes straight higher. While the past 12 months or so has trained us to look worriedly at each pullback, this has the potential to be different. We appeared to be breaking out of a range and if the sector […]
August 1 Biotech Update
Biotech is hot again. I know I may have just jinxed us but the sector continues to power higher even as the broader market spins its wheels. Obviously there will be pauses and consolidations but I suspect that the money flow that hurt us for so long is reversing and is now going to start […]
July 28 Biotech Update
It is a mixed bag today in terms of stock reactions but the actual numbers continue to be good. I am not exactly sure why some stocks are reacting better than others but I will take a stab at it. In any case, it is hard to argue that the fundamentals of the sector do […]
July 19 Biotech Update
More of the same yesterday and still not a ton of news for this morning. The market is overbought even if the sector is still not anywhere near over bought or all-time highs. That makes one worry a little about what happens to the sector when the market inevitably works off the overbought condition but […]
June 30 Biotech Update
More of the relief rally in the markets and to a certain extent the sector. As has been the case with most of the rallies in the sector, the trading desks are calling it a short covering rally more than long only money being put to work. As I have been saying in response is […]
June 6 Biotech Update
It’s the Monday after ASCO started and it is time to declare the winners and losers. Even when we have definitive data this is often a less than precise undertaking and this is especially the case this year when the data are early and incremental. So I will spend today talking about why the consensus […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Not much in terms of news to end the week as we head into ASCO. The jobs report may make this a macro day sell off (although if you dig into the jobs report the big miss seems to be driven entirely by the Verizon strike, so when that ends this should completely reverse). In […]
May 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday was not a great day but after the run having a treading water sort of trading is not the worst outcome. At the worst, we were trading in line with the market and the key will be what we do after the recent move has been digested. The trend has been higher, so the […]
