It’s beginning to look a lot (not Christmas) but a breakout. Ideally, we will be able to extend this move for a couple of days and then pullback to the previous upper end of the range, where it will act as new support. That would be a clear breakout confirmation and I think it is […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
Heading to the lower end of the range today. I suspect I am going to sound like a broken record as we bounce around this range. I keep noting that we will breakout of the upper end if we get some M&A but we also cannot ignore the possibility that we breakdown. We are in […]
September 30th Biotech Update
We are at a place where we should bounce and we did get a nice little rally to start the morning (after starting lower). Ideally that should be built upon today and later in the week. The goal would obviously be to put in a higher low and then use that move to a higher […]
August 1st Biotech Update
I thought we had a chance yesterday to really challenge the highs for the sector but we ended up pulling back. It seems like we are a lot closer to rate cuts than we have been in a long while. I do not think that anyone would be surprised to see a rate cut in […]
July 18th Biotech Update
The sector has been red hot. It is due for a pause and a test of the breakout. Perhaps this is where we get that healthy pause and refresh or perhaps we have a little more juice left in this move. Yesterday was interesting with a pretty strong move in the big pharma names. I […]
June 10th Biotech Update
Keeping on the theme of griding we continue to work through the ASCO and other data. The sector is still going to be linked to rates and the Fed but given that we are not in a place for rates to go down, we are looking likely to grind away at these levels. I thought […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
We are hanging out. I do feel like there is a little more interest in the sector than has been and obviously it is related to rates. They have trended down recently, and the talk is that CPI should be cooling off as well. The FED has not really changed its tone a lot and […]
May 15th Biotech Update
This week has not been too bad for the sector. Perhaps my original thought about steady rates being good for the sector will actually pan out. Of course, that all can change with the next CPI number of Fed talk and so we are still very tied to the broader rate environment (at least that […]
April 26th Biotech Update
Well, I sort of do not want to be a broken record on the macro and its effect on the sector. It is what it is and we all know it. We are at the start of large cap earning season and so I would prefer to focus on the fundamentals and the broader market […]
April 17th Biotech Update
We still wait on the Middle East to see if we need to add another layer of macro worry to the markets. The longer we go on the more likely tension settle but it still seems to rest on the scale of the Israeli response and whether it compels Iran to respond. A tit-for-tat spiral […]
April 8th Biotech Update
And we are once again dependent on rates and inflation. Rates are moving higher regardless of what the Fed has been saying as the economy remains stronger than expected. I think we started the year with the thought that we could see upwards of seven rate cuts, but it has generally been around three to […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to start the week. Ideally we need to get some positive momentum going in the sector but there is not a ton of fundamentals to get it going this week. It would not be bad to see the sector get some upside movement without a lot of fundamental news but […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Support held yesterday and perhaps that is an early positive sign that we have reached the bottom of this little selloff. One day does not make a successful test of support but it was nice to see and ideally we can build on that green and even accelerate it into the end of the week. […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct. We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close. It is probably a reasonable time to be […]
January 30th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week. Yesterday was quite positive and constructive and today we are giving up most of the gains. We seem to be in a choppy market for the sector and perhaps we are setting up for a more significant trend move (higher or lower) but I still think we are basically […]
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December 28th Biotech Update
The sector remains strong. It feels good to be talking about the continued strength longer than one would have expected. I would still be cautious about new positions as the chart looks a little stretched. I do not think we are anywhere near the end of this bull market, but all bull markets need time […]
December 27th Biotech Update
It has been one nice of a run for the sector and it looks almost straight up since the bottom. This is a case of chasing and FOMO into the end of the year. In the middle of November, I do not think anyone was saying we would be ending the year close to 52-week […]
December 26th Biotech Update
We are ending the year with a bang. It looks like a lot of companies are wanting to get ahead of the JPM news cycle and are announcing deals pretty early. I do wonder now what this means for the JPM hype cycle as it we now have had a good number of larger bolt […]
December 18th Biotech Update
We have had quite the run the past couple of weeks. I think news probably begins to slow as we approach the end of the year and as companies perhaps start saving news for JPM. Obviously, there are limits as to how long you can sit on material news but companies do like to hit […]
