So it was a busy ASH and not necessarily a good one for the sector. On a net-net basis the data were fine but we had a big miss on perhaps the most important data set for the sector and that drove sentiment and price action. I will go through some of my post-ASH thoughts […]
December 4 Biotech Update
It has been a bad week for the sector as we head into ASH. Perhaps this is setting up good run ups on positive data but usually weak tapes do not generate significant upside on positive catalysts. It seems that these moves are macro related (perhaps worry about interest rate hike), although we have had […]
December 2 Biotech Update
The sector was weak yesterday and this morning at the open. It is not clear to me if the weakness is just a give back from the low volume rallies last week or something news related. There was some noise out of DC about GILD and the pricing of Sovaldi. There was a massive report […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are heading into ASH and that is sure to be the topic of much discussion but I find it more and more difficult to trade these medical conferences as everyone is trying to trade these medical conferences. Not only do you need to accurately figure out the catalyst but also need to accurately figure […]
November 6 Biotech Update
Despite some additional M&A news the sector is off to a weak start. I suspect this eventually reverses today but would also take it as a strong signal if we remain weak or weaken further throughout the day. 1. It seems like only the day before the abstract release that I was talking about larger […]
November 4 Biotech Update
The sector certainly seems to be getting it legs back. The SMID are finally starting to get a bid (even if it is partly driven by short covering but it has to start somewhere). In addition, earnings have been good and now we are entering a period of both data catalysts and a seasonally positive […]
September 11 Biotech Update
Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]
August 13 Biotech Update
We had our reversal yesterday that I talked about, although I had my doubts for a little while. That is probably enough to get some buying interest barring additional negative macro issues. China did a third round of devaluations but I suspect it will have less of an effect on the market given it is […]
August 11 Biotech Update
Not a lot of biotech news again but macro is creeping back into the discussion with China devaluing their currency. Who knows the pin action this will have on the sector as it could mean global growth is too slow and biotechs are then the best growers. It could mean that it will trigger more […]
August 10 Biotech Update
We are getting a spurt of IO collaborations this morning but no major news or M&A. After the sell off Friday (and come back), I would not be surprised to see that positive momentum continue this morning. Worst case scenario would be early strength and then faded all day. Best case, obviously, would be early […]
August 7 Biotech Update
I am not able to write for a couple of days and the market goes to crap, I figured you all would be able to keep down the fort better than that. As much as it seems like a beating (it is) I do not think we are seeing the bubble burst (of course, I […]
July 24 Biotech Update
Unlike earlier this week where bad news was shrugged off, it looks like we are going to see selling on the bad news. This pullback should eventually generate nice bargains if it picks up steam but it might not be an immediate buy the dip as earning have been relatively mixed, so money may be […]
July 1 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and ready to get back into the sector. I planned on talking about the CGPR space today but I will push that back until tomorrow (but ALDR is on my radar to buy so do not be surprised if I start a position between now and tomorrow’s note but it […]
June 16 Biotech Update
The market is quite resilient. While we did not get a full reversal yesterday, the market came back and biotechs seemed to outperform. This morning is off to a good start as the late day move is getting some follow through (but was quickly squashed as we seem once again bound in a range). Of […]
June 15 Biotech Update
It is a macro world and we are just living in it. Sunday night we should have known this was going to be a bad start to the week with the two themes being Greece and the biotech bubble. Both themes are pretty trite but they are both negative headline risks. Outside of the headline […]
June 12 Biotech Update
The market is not happy this morning and it is not immediately clear as to the “cause.” This is taking the sector down, especially some of the recent fliers. The summer is generally not a great time for the sector and we have had a lull in M&A, so it could be time for a […]
June 10 Biotech Update
This is sort of a different start to the day with the market off to a good start but biotechs the obvious laggard. The sector had been one of the relative bright spots but now that the market is recovering, they are lagging. This seems more news related (discussed below) and we need to see […]
June 8 Biotech Update
The sector is quiet and macro seems neutral if not slightly negative but it is early. There is not a lot of news to discuss. I suspect that the trend is to sell biotechs early Monday morning when there is not a major buyout but once the fast money is out, we will get a […]
June 5 Biotech Update
Not much going on except broad and general selling (at least early). It seems like we are in one of those bizarro times where good economic data are bad for the market because it makes rate increases appear more likely and sooner. This action tends to be temporary as expectations for rate hikes can change […]
June 4 Biotech Update
The sector is not doing great but also not significantly pulling back (broader market is lower but also pretty choppy). The large caps appeared weak again and this is still something that we want to follow. The biggest underperformer was CELG and the news after the bell perhaps explains it but that seems like a […]
