The sector and stocks are going to give everyone whiplash. Despite their being some out performers, it seems like every move higher gets smashed later in the day. There are too many stocks to count that make a nice move higher only to end the day red. As I noted yesterday, it is unclear the […]
December 1 Biotech Update
It looks like the market and sector are going to be tied to the fate of the tax bill (at least that is how it seemed yesterday) and that makes sense given how many breaks it provides to businesses. The sector modestly outperformed the broader tech sector, which is likely some kind of catch up […]
November 29 Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing a little and while that does not mean it will shoot higher, it does seem to have stopped the decline. As I noted before both ASH and JPM can be stock moving with JPM usually a very strong period for the sector as companies save good news […]
November 1 Biotech Update
The sector is doing well with the release of the ASH abstracts. There is not a ton to glean from the data but there are certainly some nice updates that we should follow to see what happens when we get the full presentations at ASH. In some ways, the more important driver of the sector […]
June 23 Biotech Update
We are finally getting a break in the move higher but it has been quiet impressive. There was less excitement in the move than I would have thought, which I see as a sign that a lot were caught flat footed and felt under-invested (although gauging sentiment from twitter might not be the best idea). […]
June 20 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be breaking out of its range with another early show of strength. While it is still early and we have been here before, the background seems better for a breakout. We have yet to have a real negative catalyst (has been the pattern) and political overhang is leaving. As a side […]
June 7 Biotech Update
I want to focus on a couple of specific companies in more detail over the next couple of days. There seems to have been a couple of irrational reactions to ASCO news and it is important to understand why they are irrational. Of course, it could be that I am wrong but I will try […]
May 15 Biotech Update
It is a pretty slow start to the week. We have ASCO abstract coming up on the 17th and I believe EHA abstracts on the 18th. Without any real thesis changing news I expect the current trends to continue on relatively low volume and that seems to be underperformance of large caps and outperformance of […]
December 2 Biotech Update
ASH starts soon and the sector needs some more positive news as it is really starting to lag. Outside of the initial election pop it has been pretty bad in terms of relative performance. To be fair, the news outside of the election has been failures and secondaries. Obviously the sector needs more than the […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are in a lull before a flood of data arrives at the end of this week and then into ASH next week. There is not a lot of new but we did have some interesting moves yesterday that are worth talking about. 1. I have already talked about the BLUE/CELG BCMA CART data that […]
November 29 Biotech Update
It seems like the election move is taking a time out and some consolidation is happening. That is not surprising given the move and (at least for the sector) the news. Despite the pause, we are heading into a historically good period for the sector as well as a time of increased M&A activity. I […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The sector momentum continued and there is no reason to expect it will end soon. Of course, nothing goes straight up but as I noted before there are numerous tailwinds and if we can hit on the year end catalysts, then it could actually accelerate higher in the next couple months. So what could be […]
November 4 Biotech Update
There has been nothing reasonable, rational, or predictable about the price action in the sector recently. The sell off yesterday on the ASH abstracts (supposedly the catalyst) is the height of irrational. This is not to say that there was no relevant data but 90%+ of the abstract data were either not new or not […]
October 19 Biotech Update
There is really nothing to talk about today with a lack of news. I suspect we will be weak into the final debate and stretch run of the campaign. Recent polls are showing the potential of a wave election which would at the very least give the democrats the Senate with an increasing chance of […]
June 10 Biotech Update
We are having a decent pullback yesterday and this morning. Many are still frustrated with the sector and are getting the feeling of “here we go again” but pullbacks happen in bull markets. This is not to say that we are in the midst of a new bio-bull market but that we should not run […]
May 13 Biotech Update
I feel like we have been here before with the sector flirting with a major breakdown triggering another leg lower. We have yet to get that break but we are in another decision zone so the trading the next couple days will be quite telling. The selling is once again being led by spec pharma […]
April 20 Biotech Update
I need to get this out early as I have meetings all morning. I apologize if it does not read well or is poorly edited. 1. One worry that cannot be far from investors in the sector is pricing. We have seen the proposed changes to Medicare part B and now we saw a report […]
April 14 Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being modestly better than it started but the sector still remains in a difficult spot. It was certainly positive to see some recovery and movements higher but I also think it would be hard to classify it as an outperformance. There is not a lot of news today, so I expect sentiment […]
March 4 Biotech Update
I am more confident in my recent speculation that we have been seeing short covering in the SMID and cash raising through the selling of large caps. ISI had a note this morning that noted something similar about the large caps where 4 of the 10 largest laggards in the S&P yesterday were biotech. He […]
February 18 Biotech Update
We continue to have a short covering rally as the most shorted stocks continue to outperform. This seems to be the mantra of people who want to discount the move but as I said before there is no reason to suspect that the bounce off the lows would be anything but a short covering rally. […]
