It continues to be a benign week of trading the sector. I think the context matters in that given the underperformance even slow neutral weeks feels worse than it is. We are waiting for that solid move to the upside given how long and far the sector has underperformed. While it is tedious to have […]
October 13th Biotech Update
Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive. We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down. We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad. […]
October 11th Biotech Update
Still fall break with the kids, so I will try and keep this focused. The sector is off to a good start this week and it is hard to know if this is simply following the broader market, a bounce from support, or a move from some positive news. It is likely a little of […]
August 9th Biotech Update
A sort of flat opening for the week, which is not ideal but it certainly could be worse. We have earnings this week but there is not anything this week that should be thesis changing for the sector. Obviously earnings can be important for individual stocks but I do not foresee anything coming out of […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
July 29th Biotech Update
The sector got the bounce yesterday and we really need it to continue for at least a couple of days. It is not clear if this was simply a technical bounce or related to the generally positive earnings but it is certainly nice to see and will be better if it is not a single […]
July 28th Biotech Update
I think we should at the point where we can start to expect at least a dead cat bounce (and perhaps if we are lucky an actual reversal but I would not hold my breadth for that). I would have thought a turnaround Tuesday would have been in order but not quite. We are entering […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Not a lot going on in the sector today. We had that pullback yesterday and it puts us in an odd space. There is not a really clear place to bounce with the $131.5 or so level perhaps a point. We need to find some point above the recent lows to bounce and move to […]
June 14th Biotech Update
Well, we do not have any buyouts but there is some partnership news. I am not sure that will be enough to juice the sector but it is likely enough to continue the momentum to the $140/$141 level in the XBI. Assuming we make it there, there should be some sort of pause/pullback to reset […]
June 9th Biotech Update
We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday starting really good with PFE finally getting some love and the sector on decent footing but it certainly did not end well. We are now at the recent lows with odds likely favoring breaking the lows and triggering another leg lower. In some ways this is fundamentally and sentiment driven. As I noted […]
April 21st Biotech Update
It is really starting to look like we have set another lower high and are on our way to set another lower low. I had some hope that we were getting some upside momentum but this just reinforces my view that you need to respect the trend until it is broken and while we have […]
April 15th Biotech Update
I want to be optimistic and speak to the new upside momentum in the sector and in the immediate term that is accurate. The issue is that even with all the positive price action we have only been able to get to the middle of the $125 to $140 range that is key for the […]
April 8th Biotech Update
I spent some time this morning looking for something interesting to talk about and there really is not much. The sector remains in a sort of zone of indecision and that has not changed. We were a little closer to the downside level with some negative sentiment but we are higher today and I am […]
March 29th Biotech Update
It seems like there is a lot of talk about a major Asian hedge fund blowing up causing forced liquidation and market dislocations. While it does not seem to be the case that this involves a lot of biotech companies, it does appear tech related and anything this massive will have ripples throughout the market. […]
February 26th Biotech Update
We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside. Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks. That is a fast move into bear market territory. I find it […]
February 25th Biotech Update
We got what we needed to start a bounce in the sector but it has to be followed through today otherwise it is simply a bounce that reset oversold conditions, which allows for more downside. We are at support levels that should be good enough to generate a little bounce (at least), so I lean […]
February 22nd Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week and we need to see if this will follow through. I sort of thought that the best case scenario was continued selling Friday, Monday and into Tuesday so we could get a reversal Tuesday morning but we got a decent little bounce Friday. That reset the chart […]
February 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of news so a short note today. The sector tried to bounce yesterday and did a decent job but today there is no clear follow through. We are certainly at a level where there should be some support but it does not seem like very many people are exciting about biotech at […]
February 17th Biotech Update
There is not a ton to talk about as we are a little slow on the news front but we are setting up for continued downside in the market. We have the trifecta of limited M&A, continued capital raising at these levels, and bad news as being the most dominate news at this point. I […]
