So it looks like we are going to be tied to the broader market for a little while. We are still in the middle of earnings (although most large caps have reported) but it seems unlikely that anything meaningful will be coming out in the near term that would drive meaningful relatively under or over […]
January 25 Biotech Update
We are getting some biotech earnings but nothing that is dramatically thesis changing. We had a little consolidation yesterday and I would not be surprised to see it continue but the trend remains higher and suspect that we break into new highs in the first quarter (assuming at least a benign general market environment). 1. […]
January 19 Biotech Update
The M&A smoke in the sector is coming quick but it remains to be seen if this is just smoke or whether there is fire beneath. After a clearly disappointing 2017 and 2018 JPM, it is hard to imagine that there is not real fire given the needs of large bio and pharma to rebuild […]
January 4 Biotech Update
Today we are seeing a little consolidation for the sector after a solid start to the year. A real strong sentiment signal would be the sector overcoming this early morning selling to end the day green but even if we stay red it is not that big of a worry after the past couple days. […]
November 13 Biotech Update
Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
November 10 Biotech Update
We have our answer to what the sector wants to do as the number of large moves higher by the odd stock is over and the large days down continue. It certainly looks like the series of large positive moves were masking a much broader weakness as the trend now is to sell every SMID […]
November 6 Biotech Update
Sort of a quiet start to the week, which is good and bad. Ideally, we would like to see some nice fundamental news to start the week but given the lack of news and flat broader markets, it might give us a sense of the underlying bid (or offer) in the sector. At this point, […]
October 27 Biotech Update
It has been an absolutely brutal earing season for the sector and for pretty good reason but you have also seen some babies being thrown out with the bathwater. Given the selling that has occurred, it is a natural reaction to assume these are buys or a bounce is coming but I prefer to sit […]
October 25 Biotech Update
ALXN managed to hold onto its gains yesterday, which was a positive but the sector just feels heavy. I am not sure if this is simply related to nervousness over earnings plus the negative news last week or is it more macro related. The broader markets have been weakening and high volatility sectors like biotech […]
Dave-Trading November Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
October 24 Biotech Update
This is the start of the wave of earnings and the sector is right at a critical support level. These earnings will determine (or most likely will determine) whether or not we bounce higher from this support for the next leg higher or break lower. So in some ways the reaction to the earnings is […]
October 23 Biotech Update
News will really start to pick up this week with a full set of earnings. There are a couple of interesting ones to watch but given how late we are in the year, the odds of a massive beat or miss are increasingly small. That being said there could still be some nice movers. 1. […]
October 11 Biotech Update
More of the same. The sector seems to be content to drift on low volume, which is pretty consistent with the broader market and the lack of fundamental news. Odds are this is the calm before the storm with the most likely set of news coming from earnings but even that should not be completely […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I was in my office yesterday to write but there is really nothing happening in the sector that is exceptionally newsworthy. I was hoping we would have some news today but it looks like we are in a bit of a lull. The good news is that it will not last too much longer as […]
August 16 Biotech Update
The recovery continues as risk-on seems to be heading back into the market. Part of me sees this as what I expected in terms of a sell off to test the break out, the previous resistance holding as support, and now we continue higher. The other part of me sees a wall of worry that […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
July 14 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to end the week, so I will touch on a couple of quick longer term themes. The sector was a little stronger than I would have expected yesterday on the back of the news that medicare will not run out of money until 2029 meaning that IPAB will not be […]
July 12 Biotech Update
Another day with little news (at least early as the NVS ad com is today). This is really the calm before the storm as we are inching closer to the end of the summer and the start of the fall brokerage conferences and we are actually only a couple weeks away from the start of […]
