Really not much happening in the sector, so I will keep this relatively quick. I think if we can close above $93 on the XBI it bodes well for next week but it would take a nice move today. I do not think we are anywhere close to breaking down so either we have a […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The sector has had a nice sharp pullback that has challenged sentiment a little. I was a little surprised about how quickly sentiment got negative yesterday as we have had a pretty solid move higher. It seems that sentiment is a little more fragile under the surface than I thought. In some ways that is […]
March 21 Biotech Update
This will certainly be a bad day for the large cap but I would not be surprised to see the XBI outperform if not eventually turn green as M&A fever hits the space. The BIIB failure is large and important for a number of reasons, which I will go through today. 1. While many did […]
February 7 Biotech Update
We start off a little weak this morning, which is not completely unexpected given that we are at the top end of the recent range. Obviously it would be nice to see a breakout above the range to start another leg higher but range bound trading after the recent run is not bad at this […]
January 30 Biotech Update
Another day and another weak earning for biotech. This was fairly predictable and the real question is how far these earnings (and the upcoming slew of secondaries now that the government is open) will push the sector. The higher this pullback bottoms the strong the signal, whereas getting anywhere near the previous low would be […]
January 29 Biotech Update
An interesting start to large cap earnings. The sector was weak yesterday and this could be the long awaited pullback (or another head fake). Ideally, the pullback bottoms out in the $73-$75 range on the XBI to form a higher low. While a retest of the recent low around $64 is not impossible it would […]
January 25 Biotech Update
Another day and another lackluster pharma earnings. In some sense, it is good to see this have limited impact on the sector but on the other hand this is certainly not a bullish fundamental situation to see growth slowing in pharma. Clearly next week will be more important as we get into the large cap […]
October23 Biotech Update
It is unfortunate that the earnings weeks comes as the market seems to want to collapse. Industrial earnings are finally seeing the impact of the trade policies and now apparently it is a biotech issue. It is hard to see how the sector would avoid being pulled into a larger market sell-off regardless of the […]
August 3 Biotech Update
I will quickly finish up the week as there are a couple of interesting tidbits and the broader trading is more or less the same. There are some areas of strength but its relatively isolated but there is also not a ton of broad weakness either. Barring an awful day today the sector should end […]
July 31 Biotech Update
I am still trying to catch up on all the earnings and happenings last week but I wanted to talk about two broad observations. In some ways, I benefited from not being able to watch the price action last week and only really looked at the news. In general, the price action does not reflect […]
July 17 Biotech Update
The lack of news continues as well as a generally weak market. While it certainly was not strong yesterday (and to start today), it feels more like indifference than a strong push by the bears. This does not mean it could not morph into something more meaningful but at this point it seems more like […]
July 10 Biotech Update
So I stay away and the sector does well and now that I am back, let us see how it does. I apologize for any weakness that my return causes but the sector has been demonstrating some decent strength in the past days. On the positive side, it seems related to positive fundamental news and […]
June 18 Biotech Update
Nothing new to start the week outside of a pretty weak market. I am not sure what the catalyst outside of an extended market but it looks again like the sector is hitting resistance and unable to break out. Perhaps there is continued disappoint in term of the lack of deals but regardless of the […]
April 24 Biotech Update
There is a decent amount of news flow today, which makes sense given that I have little time to cover it all this morning. I will try and go through the main news and touch on the most important aspects. Overall, it is not feeling like this earning season will be enough to change sentiment, […]
April 23 Biotech Update
Sort of a quite start to the week but it is Monday of the first week of earnings, so it is not completely surprising to see a slow start. Obviously news will pick up with the earnings this week and perhaps we get some news outside of earnings but that remains TBD. 1. PRTA announced […]
April 20 Biotech Update
It is all about deal making it appears. We are getting closer to the earnings but deals are happening and might be happening or not happening as the case may be. The sector remains in an odd spot where large caps need deals but they also seem reluctant to make deals, although they do take […]
April 19 Biotech Update
We are starting to enter into earnings season, which will pick up next week. This will obviously be driving price action and there is usually a little more risk/volatility in 1Q earnings given the donut whole. This happens every year and you would expect that people would understand by now but every year there is […]
April 9 Biotech Update
I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]
March 2 Biotech Update
Between continued hawkish fed speak and a potential trade war, the market is going to have trouble getting its feet, which includes the sector. The market has been able to shake off a lot of issues the past year or so and perhaps this will be yet another wall of worry to climb but at […]
February 16 Biotech Update
There has been some interesting news to end the week. The market seems to have recovered its footing a little and this includes the sector. There is still some work to be done to repair the damage of the sell off but so far so good. 1. NBIX has been interesting. I thought it would […]
