It seems like the reddit traders and the GME short squeeze neither broke the market or revolutionized it. They were unable to keep the price high and avoid the crash (I suspect the Robinhood restriction only hastened the crash) and the were unable to replicate it in their next target of SLV. So odds are […]
January 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting and today it seems to have settled down a little. As I noted all week this was going to cause some volatility in the market and it has. I am still not sure if the supposed rise of reddit finance (so to speak) changes the market in any way. It could very […]
January 28th Biotech Update
I was right about being careful in the market given the potential quick moves and dislocations. I think those warnings are the same today. There seems to be a lot of issues with large funds and then you have masses of retail investors piling into stocks trying to squeeze them and continue the party. It […]
December 1st Biotech Update
A strong start to the week that is continuing. While certain sentiment measures are getting into danger territory, it still seems like the market has a little bit more room for running. The uncertainty around the elections is waning and the Biden economic team seems to indicate a strong desire for fiscal stimulus. We are […]
November 30th Biotech Update
As I have said there will be a tug of war in the market and so far vaccine hopes and seasonality are winning over the growing pandemic. One really has to worry about an out of control pandemic combined with a holiday season but the market is not quite ready to worry about it. I […]
November 18th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So the market continues to look good including the sector that is pushing all time highs. While I often say the trend is your friend (and it is), it might also be time to pull out another saying. When markets are making all time highs, the most likely outcome is to continue to make marginal […]
November 9th Biotech Update
We do not have merger Monday, so I suspect the market will be disappointed. I joke of course as this is going to be a massive relief rally on the news of the PFE vaccine. While there will certainly be a rally that raises almost everyone, there will likely be rotations out of COVID treatment […]
November 5th Biotech Update
While we clearly do not have a clear winner from the election, it at least looks like the market has decided where the election is going. If there was uncertainty over the outcome, then the market would not have rallied and volatility would not have dropped. Given the pace of vote counting, it looks like […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The election is (sort of) over. While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes. The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican. I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
This is the literal calm before the storm. The election is tomorrow and the adu AdCom is Friday. Plus, we still have a number earnings coming this week as well. Even with all of that news the week starts off with basically nothing that meaningful so there is not much to say. That is not […]
October 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week (or continuation of the week) as the market and sector continue to struggle. Given all of the potential news makers in the next couple weeks it is difficult to completely attribute the move solely to one factor. My mantra has been that the trend is your friend and […]
October 22 Biotech Update
The past couple days have not been great but we still remain in the uptrend and that has to be the assumption until that trend is broken. We are probably at an area where support should happen and a bounce develop. If we continue downward and do not get any real support, it would raise […]
October 14th Biotech Update
Not much is actually happening in terms of news and yet the sector continues to move higher. We are getting multiple days of green in a row and breaking out into new highs. I do not think there is anything fundamental driving this move and it seems to simply be momentum and technical. Clearly we […]
October 12 Biotech Update
We are not starting the week with new M&A but we are starting the week with strong momentum both with the sector and the broader market. Of course, very strong broader markets have not necessarily been great in recent weeks for the sector but there is certainly a chance that we break to new highs. […]
September 30th Biotech Update
Given the importance of the election in terms of the market, one would have expected that the debate last night would have an impact on the market. I have no idea how to interpret what happened last night in terms of who won or what they would actually do if elected. The markets last night […]
September 23 Biotech Update
We could be setting ourselves up for moving to a higher high with the reversal yesterday. While it certainly seems possible, this would also be the potential start of a new trend so I would be cautious in putting too much stock in it until we see some real confirmation. In this case it would […]
August 7th Biotech Update
The market and sector seem to both be deciding what to do next and are basically drifting at current levels. I am a little surprised to see the sector drifting given that it is at a somewhat important level for the near term movement. I thought it would have decided whether it wants to break […]
August 6th Biotech Update
The sector came close to getting above recent highs but seemed to touch them and then pullback. It was not necessarily a bad day for the sector but also did not quite break the potential downtrend. There seems to be some positive news last night and this morning, so perhaps that will be enough to […]
July 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We are getting some news as the week progresses but it still remains a little slow on the news. I suspect that this continues as we have the start of earning season at the end of the month and so unless there is really noteworthy news companies are going to likely wait until earnings to […]
June 19th Biotech Update
The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range. All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range. At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]
