It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it. I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher. I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low. There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
July 9th Biotech Update
I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential. Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]
June 24th Biotech Update
The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why. There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction. Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]
June 23rd Biotech Update
Listless. That might not be the right word but that is how the sector feels. On a given day it does not feel that way as the daily moves seem like there is some conviction behind them but the daily moves do not seem connected and do not seem to follow through from one day […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Not a lot going on in the sector today. We had that pullback yesterday and it puts us in an odd space. There is not a really clear place to bounce with the $131.5 or so level perhaps a point. We need to find some point above the recent lows to bounce and move to […]
June 15th Biotech Update
It looked like we could have gotten some momentum but it was not quite able to continue. It was not stock specific but pretty broad based. It is not as if it was a particularly bad day but that momentum that was building that I thought could get us to the $140-1 level on the […]
June 10th Biotech Update
I think we are set to make that push to the $140-$141 level on the XBI. We got some nice momentum and if we get to that level the sector would probably be stretched to the upside and I can see a pause/pullback. This is not bad as it creates the opportunity for a pullback […]
June 9th Biotech Update
We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
June 8th Biotech Update
So I sort of missed a lot but not really. Obviously I was driving as the biggest binary in recent memory dropped but ASCO was pretty uneventful and the sector is basically still in the same range as when I left. I would hope that the BIIB news will at least get the sector to […]
June 1st Biotech Update
I was hoping that we would have a surge of M&A starting after this long weekend but I knew it was a pipedream and we are still waiting. There are still a ton of binary events coming in June (BIIB adu PDUFA, VRTX data, and ASCO to name a few) so we might not need […]
May 24th Biotech Update
What if I told you we are starting the week with slow news and no deal? Well, it is slow news but we do actually have a small deal (nothing that is nearly large enough to spark any rally but a deal nonetheless). In some ways, the fact that the sector seems to have stopped […]
May 14th Biotech Update
What a weird series of days. It is like the sector is an inverse ETf with the broader markets. I really thought we would be able to move with the broader market but I guess not. I think the relationship with the broader market is like just an odd quirk and what is really more […]
April 22 Biotech Update
So the sector did not dump into new lows, which is good but we are still a really bad day or a couple of regular bad days away from breaking new lows. This $126 level on the XBI has acted as support a number of times (in that we have bounced off of it) but […]
April 19th Biotech Update
We remain in the same spot with the sector. It has not really given us the clear signal but we really need to break above that $140 level to ensure that we have not made a clear lower high. There is also another potential higher low being setup around $135.66 or so. I am not […]
April 16th Biotech Update
Today is modestly important not that we are going to break above an important range or below one but continued momentum higher is sort of key. We have had a good week so do far but if we stall at these levels it really looks like a clear trend line lower where yesterday has the […]
April 5th Biotech Update
While it is possible that this week is decision week for the sector, I am not convinced that it has to be. There is room above and below for it to tread water and not signal its next big move. I see the $150 and $125 levels as the key ones to watch and the […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
