A slow start to earnings with nothing really pushing the sector. I think as we move through the large cap section of the earnings the questions will revolve around M&A as it is hard to see a large cap that does not need some additional filling out of the pipeline with some more than others. […]
April 20th Biotech Update
This week has been pretty tame in the sense that we have not really built on the move higher but have not broken below that $80 level that I think is key to hold. I think we are all a little impatient with the sector given its recent performance but grinding right above the $80 […]
April 12th Biotech Update
Well, it does look like we are still in this mini range. The market could be in rally mode today with the CPI coming in cooler than expected. While I am not convinced that the CPI looks that much cooler than expected (0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations), it seems to be enough for some significant […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Treading water? While it might not seem like it, the sector could be bouncing around support levels and perhaps even setting up a new range between $75 and $78. If that looks like a pretty tight range to you, I think you are right and the upper end might be closer to $80 and the […]
March 23rd Biotech Update
Are we heading to $60 on the XBI or not? We sort of broke below the last bit of support yesterday that seemed to clear the way for another 20% or so decline. It could also have been a head fake that then leads to a reversal. I would not look too positively on the […]
February 27th Biotech Update
It has gotten a little rough for the sector. Where I thought we could ideally build on a potential breakout and setup a nice positive trend, the sector looks like it has failed to establish that new trend higher. We are back to the old range and leaves it up in the air as to […]
February 17th Biotech Update
Just as we thought we were getting cleared of the Fed, they interjected themselves into the market again with perhaps longer rate hikes and perhaps even faster. Whether that comes to pass or not remains to be seen but the market did not quite have the more hawkish tone priced into the valuations. I do […]
January 20th Biotech Update
We had our chance but the trend has remained our friend and we remain stuck in the range. It was not unexpected but still a little disappointing as it would have been nice to get that breakout. I do not think it makes a breakdown more likely but the grind in the range continues and […]
January 10th Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. I suspect it was a combination of a little bit of underwhelming JPM news and worries about the Fed and Macro. Yes, there were deals and data and generally the news out of JPM was good but there was nothing that was ground breaking or thesis changing (in a […]
January 5th Biotech Update
A nice little recovery from a bad start to the year but I must sound like a broken record at this point- we remain in the range and we have to assume that we will until proven otherwise. We seem to be on our way to the upper end of the range and perhaps JPM […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading. I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit. I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]
November 15th Biotech Update
We had a nice little continuation yesterday and I would not be surprised if we do not run into a pause that refreshes (or at least it would be healthy to do so). There are a couple of different ways to think about the recent move. I would lean towards the focus on the Fed […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
October 27th Biotech Update
A strong start yesterday but it weakened in the afternoon. We are near the top of the range that seems to have developed. It would not be surprising to see that upper end act as resistance. I am not sure there is anything that can happen today that could be definitive. Even if we break […]
September 23rd Biotech Update
It has not been a good week for the market or the sector. We have clearly broken down and interest rate concerns are probably going to at best keep a lid on the upside and at worst continue the downside. I do not think it was a coincidence that the sector seemed to get it […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
