There is not a lot of news to start the week but this will be a bust week of news, so I will keep this short as we wait for the real news flow. 1. The biggest news so far is that the PRGO CEO is being replaced with the implication that old CEO is […]
April 21 Biotech Update
I think the best description of the sector is listless and uncertain. The price action has been mixed but more than anything else, there has been a significant lack of volume. No one wants to buy or sell biotechs and so they have been drifting with some good days and some bad days. We are […]
April 20 Biotech Update
I need to get this out early as I have meetings all morning. I apologize if it does not read well or is poorly edited. 1. One worry that cannot be far from investors in the sector is pricing. We have seen the proposed changes to Medicare part B and now we saw a report […]
Dave-Trading – April Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No positionPreview 2-3 […]
March 24 Biotech Update
The week has not been ending how it started and this is always the risk with short covering rallies. Without real long term buyers, they are going to be susceptible to large swings. SMID biotechs that were up nicely from the lows are suddenly down 10%+ on a day on no news. While this is […]
March 9 Biotech Update
Yesterday was certainly a blast from the past with small caps getting crushed and large caps outperforming but only because they are down less than SMID. After the recent run it is not surprising that the run pauses and reverses at resistance. As one could imagine the bears will highlight this as the start of […]
Dave-Trading BIIB
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** Before we get to the meat of the trade, I want to address a recent question. How do I know how much capital to […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The market and sector did not like the FOMC decision or perhaps the wording of the decision. The sector remains in a precarious position. It has already fallen a lot but it remains at critical long term trend lines and if they break we could only be halfway through the decline. There was some talk […]
January 27 Biotech Update
The sector finally caught a break with the macro headwinds seeming to pause only to get sector specific headwinds with Donald Trump talking about drug pricing. It was not clear exactly what he meant as the numbers he threw around for the savings from Medicaid were more than the Medicaid yearly drug expense (keeping in […]
December 30 Biotech Update
Nothing newsworthy for the sector has happened in the past day. We had a nice rally the other day and perhaps that continues with a positive bias into the end of the year as investors and traders finish up the year but with volumes drying up it is really a toss-up how it will trade. […]
October 21 Biotech Update
The sector continues to be under pressure, although we seem to be staying above the recent lows which remains critical. We are entering earnings season and it will be interesting to see if earnings without M&A is enough to spark buying. My base case is good earnings will be enough to stop the decline but […]
October 9 Biotech Update
I would say after yesterday that the sector looks a little better but I think more to the point it seems that volatility is the best word that describes the trading action. The biased bull in me sees this volatility as slowly healing the charts and putting in a bottom. The bear in me sees […]
September 14 Biotech Update
Talk about a slow start to the week. Nothing really new, which probably means all eyes will remain on the Fed. I have no idea whether the Fed is going to raise rates or not or whether the market moves higher or lower if the rates are raised or not. In some ways, the best […]
September 11 Biotech Update
Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]
August 26 Biotech Update
The market had a rough day yesterday where the rally from the “lows” earlier in the week faded at the end of the day. That is never a good sign and at this point we need to ignore the gaps higher until they strengthen into the end of the day as opposed to fade. I […]
August 10 Biotech Update
We are getting a spurt of IO collaborations this morning but no major news or M&A. After the sell off Friday (and come back), I would not be surprised to see that positive momentum continue this morning. Worst case scenario would be early strength and then faded all day. Best case, obviously, would be early […]
July 31 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news so I want to round out a couple of issues this morning and close it out for the week. I am finding it more and more difficult to note whether the sector is strong or weak, which makes me think the best description is choppy. Overall it seems like modest […]
July 30 Biotech Update
The sector is pretty weak, which is a continuation of the past couple of days. It is not immediately clear to me the reason for the weakness as earnings have been almost universally good (notable exception being BIIB). Given the lack of news, I will spend today brainstorming some ideas for the weakness as well […]
July 29 Biotech Update
The sector was a strong performer after the bell but it did not seem to last long. The sector should be strong given the bulk of the earnings but I cannot shake the feeling that sentiment has slipped. Perhaps it is the broader market acting as a drag but I am not convince the sector […]
July 28 Biotech Update
The sector looked like it would be off to a good start but it faded quickly. I would still argue that any movement before the GILD earnings can be quickly changed, so the trading action tomorrow is much more important than anything today. Not a ton of major news but a decent amount of tidbits, […]
