The past two weeks or so has seen some large moves on a daily basis and yet there has basically been very little movement in the sector (or market writ large). There seems to be a continued bull versus bear debate ongoing in the market and the basic outlines (if you have seen these articles) […]
May 15th Biotech Update
It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now. It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance. It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]
May 8th Biotech Update
We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks. The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break. The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]
April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update
It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy. The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves. Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]
April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update
Good news for investors. Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine. Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong. That seems […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
March 30th Biotech Update
The market continues higher albeit at a slower pace. Clearly the epidemic is not getting any better so why is the market holding up relative well? First, it could simply be the dead cat bounce from oversold conditions. I suspect that most think that is the likely scenario and that is not necessarily wrong. Second, […]
March 27th Biotech Update
Today is going to be an interesting day. The news has not been good this week but the market has had a nice recovery. I would expect that the news does not get any better this week and Boris Johnson has actually tested positive for COVID. We open lower and it seems setup well for […]
March 25th Biotech Update
I am still trying to get setup at home. I order a new desktop because I cannot stand writing on a laptop (I know I am a grumpy old man already). In any case, I will try and get more notes out on this laptop even though it drives me a little crazy typing on […]
March 16th Biotech Update
It seems like the market and country is starting to come to terms with the scale of the epidemic and its economic impact but the trend remains until it is broken. The trend is crash at this point. I will be putting stink bids in trying to catch flash crashes as I still think those […]
March 11 Biotech Update
We remain in a macro world but even that remains difficult to trade. The large intra-day moves puts pressure on trades as it could hit stop-loss levels or convince you that the trade is moving too far away from you. In addition, the administration is talking about stimulus and help but it cannot help everyone. […]
February 28th Biotech Update
We in a macro market. COVID days up and COVID days down. I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa. I think the only way to avoid that […]
February 19th Biotech Update
The curious case of the flat market continues. At this point, I would call it a clear trend (with the trend being sideways). I know I have been waiting for the move out of this sideways actions and thought it was imminent but at this point perhaps we treat it like any other trend and […]
February 11 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in decision mode. It is hanging right around the recent highs and it is almost as if the market is trying to make up its mind as to whether or not it wants to bust through the recent highs. I doubt we simply hang at these levels for long. A […]
February 10 Biotech Update
Last Monday we were following a weak end to the previous week and I expected that to continue early in the week but instead we had a pretty strong rally. Last Friday was another weak day and so one would expect follow through but given last Monday, perhaps not. I am still convinced that the […]
January 29 Biotech Update
The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]
January 21 Biotech Update
A long weekend and we start the week like JPM with little to now news. If you stare at the chart closely enough and squint your eyes, we might be setting up a new uptrend with higher lows and higher highs assuming we break above the highs of last week. I would not bet the […]
January 16 Biotech Video Update
So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. https://www.twitch.tv/chimeraresearch Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]
January 15th Biotech Update
The snorefest that is JPM continues with no deals and not particularly meaningful company updates. The sector was understandably weak yesterday morning but it had a pretty nice reversal during the day. I am honestly surprised at the strength of the sector given the lack of news. While perhaps strength is not the correct word […]
