Perhaps we are trying to setup a higher low but the sector seems to be struggling a little to get a lot of traction. I do not worry too much about it as long as the recent low holds but we have been hanging out at these levels for a little too long for complete […]
September 23rd Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week but like I said I think we need a positive catalyst (like M&A) to really move above the resistance. That being said this is a pretty bad day with broad weakness. I think what we are looking for now is setting a higher low and we are in […]
August 20th Biotech Update
Well, I did not think my return would be celebrated so much by the sector. All kidding aside, it was quite a nice day yesterday and I am a little surprised that we did not have more resistance at the $98 levels. We did spend a couple of days bouncing against those levels but I […]
May 31st Biotech Update
Nothing really to add on the sector or market in general. It is all about inflation and rates and will be so for the foreseeable future. The sector has been struggling a little and I think probably a little more than I would have originally expected. I understand that rates are heading up a little […]
May 29th Biotech Update
There is not a lot to say about the broader sector or even the broader market. It seems like anyone who wants to go long is buying NVDA and semis and every other sector is being impacted by the higher rates. I am not convinced that the move higher in rates is sustainable as I […]
April 15th Biotech Update
Did we dodge the Middle East risk? We did to a certain extent, but I do not think we are completely out of the woods yet. If Israel decided not to response, then I would be quite confident that the risks are significantly lower but it seems like Israel is going to respond and they […]
March 6th Biotech Update
Despite the good start to the week, it has not been as positive of a continuation. We are at the lower end of a range but one that I do not have confidence can hold. I like the $94-$95 level a lot more given that it had acted as resistance for awhile. I do think […]
January 24th Biotech Update
The sector has been dragging for a little. Not really bouncing from the recent selling but also not accelerating to the downside. I still have no real conviction whether or not the next move is another leg lower or a bounce from here. I do have the conviction that even another leg lower does not […]
January 11th Biotech Update
JPM has been a little slow on the news front. There were a couple of small deals and some rumors of others, but it really looks like December was the real flood of M&A as opposed to JPM. If we look at the past month or so, then the deals have been quite robust, just […]
November 20th Biotech Update
It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start. I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front. This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]
September 29th Biotech Update
We ended down yesterday but I actually find the trading encouraging. There was a big move down early in the day and we spent the rest of the trading day grinding higher. We still ended lower but we had one hour of selling and the rest of the day was buying. If we can continue […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
July 11th Biotech Update
It was a very nice start to the week, but I sort of feel like we are in a strange spot. I am not convinced that the sector is now clear of breaking down. I can easily see a couple days of weakness that puts us under the lows of yesterday. I can also see […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
April 6th Biotech Update
We had a good day and then a bad day and hopefully we have another good day. The sector is doing well (or at least better than it has been for a long time). It has been awhile since the sector looked to be setting up an uptrend and while we have been disappointed before, […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 6th Biotech Update
The sector is not having a good start to the year. I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM. It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]
