Some news to talk about today in a couple stocks and one idea I want to float that has been ruminating in my mind. The sector continues to do well as is the market in general. There has been some talk that the melt up is related to a massive synthetic short position in the […]
February 10 Biotech Update
So I think we need to be prepared for some more backlash and bad press given the decision by Marathon to think it is business as usual. So far the backlash has been isolated but it is difficult to see this not become a political talking point. 1. Marathon licensed an old, generic steroid (DFZ) […]
January 30 Biotech Update
Volatility is the name of the game with the daily flow of disruptive executive orders coming out of Washington but despite this the VIX has been going down and the market in general has been holding up well. At some point this disconnect will correct and it will not be a simple gap down (or […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We obviously got some news and price action but most of it is explainable and somewhat predictable. I will highlight some of the news and focus on the BMY report as that seems to have generated the most discussion. 1. We had the buyout of ALIOY a lot sooner than I expected at a lot […]
Dave Trading – February 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
January 20th Biotech Update
We are getting some more offerings as is expected post JPM but they seem slower than usual. In any case, we have more large cap pharma news that is pretty meaningful that I want to focus on today. 1. BMY noted last night that they will not be pursuing accelerated approval for front line NSCLC […]
January 17 Biotech Update
The sector appears to have shrugged off (relatively speaking as to what could have happened) the recent Trump noise on the industry and likely for good reason. It is only a matter of time before the market learns that the President-elect is likely a lot more bark than bite and in the case of the […]
January 5 Biotech Update
News is starting to pick up as we approach JPM. This should continue through the weekend. There has not really been anything dramatic today as these early birds tend to be companies that would be overwhelmed by the bigger announcements expected closer to JPM. All in all, the net-net of news this morning has been […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
December 20 Biotech Update
Well, this has been a strangely interesting day for the week before Christmas. I thought the bulk of news was done but I clearly spoke too soon. There is some good news for the sector as well as some good-well-maybe-bad-let-us-argue news. I am going to go through these as sort of quick hits as none […]
December 19 Biotech Update
We are winding down and gearing up. The year is winding down so the news flow seems to be drying up but we are starting to gear up with 2017 predictions and JPM. Perhaps tax loss selling is slowing but I still think that might be the biggest headwind into the end of the year […]
December 6 Biotech Update
It was a good day for most of the sector and ASH names except the ones I seemed to own. In any case, it was good to see the sector respond positively to ASH in general despite the odd reaction in a couple of names. I will continue with my ASH related reports today. 1. […]
November 22 Biotech Update
More of the same in terms of slow news and likely decreasing volumes into the weekend. We do have a couple pieces of fundamental news to talk about but nothing groundbreaking in its importance. 1. The most meaningful is the removal of the partial clinical hold of the head and neck combo trials for AZN. […]
November 14 Biotech Update
And we continue with the Trump effect in the sector. As I noted before this is going to be a longer term tailwind despite what people argue about the potential transitory nature. Yes, we will not go straight up and yes it is not 100% positive forever but this is a sector that has grossly […]
November 4 Biotech Update
There has been nothing reasonable, rational, or predictable about the price action in the sector recently. The sell off yesterday on the ASH abstracts (supposedly the catalyst) is the height of irrational. This is not to say that there was no relevant data but 90%+ of the abstract data were either not new or not […]
October 31 Biotech Update
There is nothing that seems to help the sector. The clear sentiment headwind is the election and that is certainly plausible. A non-democratic sweep of the presidency, senate, and house should be good for the sector. Of course, everyone expects that so usually when everyone expects something the market does not act in that way. […]
October 26 Biotech Update
It looks like the sector is not responding well to decent news. As I noted yesterday nothing has had a perfect press release but given the selloff perfect news was clearly not priced in. To be clear, there is some positive price action on positive news but it seems very isolated and very susceptible to […]
October 14 Biotech Update
The sector may be due for a snap back (with the broader market) but I still get the sense that people are worried. My prevailing thought has been that this was related to both earnings jitters and a set of negative data. I still think those are a factor but I also wonder if the […]
October 10 Biotech Update
It is a solid positive reaction to ESMO across the sector (with some notable exceptions). While there are number of potential topics, I want to focus on one as it has very broad implications that we need to watch not just in the near term but longer term. 1. BMY front line data were an […]
October 7 Biotech Update
There have been some interesting moves and news since Wednesday but even looking at the sector today, the volumes seem a little weak in most names. As such, there are some moves that seem meaningful in individual names with high volume but I am not reading any of those moves (or the other low volume […]
