The sector has been doing well but it seems to have been a bifurcated market with big winners and losers. The broader market seems to be listless which is not helping. My low conviction view is that the sector looks ready to lead another leg higher but we need broader market participation for it to […]
August 16 Biotech Update
The recovery continues as risk-on seems to be heading back into the market. Part of me sees this as what I expected in terms of a sell off to test the break out, the previous resistance holding as support, and now we continue higher. The other part of me sees a wall of worry that […]
August 8 Biotech Update
Another day with some news and catch up. The sector is still not doing well as we see positive individual moves that seem to have no read through other stocks. Of course, we are also getting some pretty negative news so perhaps we are simply seeing a balancing of those impacts but it seems that […]
August 7 BiotechUpdate
We have some interesting earnings news but this will more be catch up from the last week. My broader view is that despite any positive or negative news the sector is more likely than not to retest the breakout levels. There is some support at the current levels so there might be a near term […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
July 13 Biotech Update
We have some news and perhaps additional news but unconfirmed as of yet. In general, however, the sector seems to be more or less treading water without a real upside or downside balance. This is potentially a longer term positive as we might be consolidating the breakout through time as opposed to price. I still […]
July 10 Biotech Update
I think the summer doldrums have more than officially set into the market. There is little news to start the week so I expect today to be a low volume move with perhaps a slight bias to the upside as that has been the recent trend. Perhaps there will be some selling pressure in the […]
July 6 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and seem to have brought some selling with me. I did not follow the market closely at all so I need to catch up a little but it looks like it more or less was grinding around the recent highs if not drifting a little lower. I had some buy […]
June 19 Biotech Update
The sector finally does not have bad news this morning to undercut any momentum. We are still waiting on the M&A cycle to start but at this point I do not think anyone is investing in the sector on the expectation of M&A (that is good to see). We are still in the same old […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 12 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing OK. The market appears oddly bifurcated again with the large caps generally underperforming but there are some nice moves in the SMID. This is perhaps the M&A bid coming back into the sector or perhaps is just a reflection that the large caps have little growth and weak pipelines […]
May 11 Biotech Update
There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]
April 26 Biotech Update
Today is the eye in the center of the storm with a number of earnings tomorrow. It might also be the eye in the center of the North Korean crisis as Trump is meeting with all of the Senate and House to discuss the situation. If we can get through the next couple days without […]
April 10 Biotech Update
The weekend is over and we have another Monday with a noticeable lack of M&A. This is not an issue for the market (yet) but outside of the ALIOY deal this has been a bad year for M&A. These years happen but remember the role that a pick up in M&A played in sector calls […]
March 28 Biotech Update
So an interesting day yesterday in that the sector outperformed the broader market (as I expected) but the broader market was not as weak. Obviously my market headwind/bio tailwind call is longer term so what happens day to day is not that meaningful (and it is not really an exceptionally high conviction call but simply […]
March 27 Biotech Update
We are back in a macro driven world (at least for the near term). The failure of TrumpCare will have two impacts on the sector. First, the odds of drug pricing reform in the near, short, or medium terms are now significantly lower. Trump wants (needs) a win and he is not going back to […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The sector is on the edge of either breaking down or breaking out. While it is hard to have very strong conviction, I would lean towards a breakout especially given the potential news this week. Obviously the data can change where we move but I do think it will send a sign as to the […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Long weekend and a significant lack of news. I do not think there was an expectation of big news but sometimes these long weekends can surprise with a flurry of mergers- not today. Without anything major I will do a series of quick hits on the news since last Friday. Market is doing well to […]
