We are back baby! This is the M&A that the sector has been wanting. If this cannot break the sector out of the downtrend and push it back to highs (if not higher) then not much else could. The ideal scenario would be a push above the recent lower high today but we were pretty […]
September 9th Biotech Update
Yesterday could have been worse and it could have been better. It seemed like we were going to get a real nice bounce and perhaps even get to green but it seemed to stall at the end of the day. So when all was said and done it was basically a day that had a […]
July 30th Biotech Update
The sector certainly fells heavy. Nothing seems to take individual stocks higher and everything seems like a reason to sell. The whole market was basically higher yesterday outside the sector. In addition, we did not make a higher low breaking what was a positive trend higher. Despite all these issues, the $110 area on the […]
July 15th Biotech Update
I think it is clear now that it was COVID that worried the market earlier this week. The reaction to the vaccine news has been pretty clear and positive. While it is possible that the market would have had a similar reaction if the selloff was China driven, it seems more likely that worries about […]
June 8th Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least. The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising. My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]
January 13 Biotech Update
It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
October 9th Biotech Update
We are potentially setting up well for the sector. Yesterday was a down day but was that the pullback to consolidate the bounce and start a trend higher? Maybe. We need to get over recent highs around $78 on the XBI and while we do not need that today we probably need to at least […]
October 8 Biotech Update
This is going to be an interesting couple of days for the sector. This is either the pullback to consolidate before another leg higher or the end of the dead cat bounce. Sentiment in the sector is awful. Sell side notes are talking about conversations with money managers with most simply seeing the sector as […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Guess what? The macro continues to dominate but it might actually work for us this week. If Mexico can work out a deal with the US, then the market is set to move a lot higher. If not, then expect more downside. Given the amount of disruption that the tariffs would cause, I suspect a […]
February 26 Biotech Update
The sector has gapped above the range with merger Monday. Interestingly the last gap we saw in the XBI (JPM week) saw a gap and run instead of a test of the gap. While it is not impossible to see a similar gap and run in this case, we are already hitting what could be […]
February 15th Biotech Update
Not surprisingly we are in a post earnings lull. While there are still earnings being posted, the bulk of the major ones have been reported. We are also seeing the expected uptick in secondaries, which is later than usual as a result of the government shutdown. In any case, there is nothing particularly sector moving […]
October 31 Biotech Update
Is the sector starting to bottom? It certainly does not feel like it as every gain is followed by more selling. No move higher seems to have any staying power. Positive starts to the day are sold by the end of the day. All that being said bottom and tops looks so clear in hindsight […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector appears to be gaining some momentum but we need to see the strength continue and ideally broaden. Positive data being rewarded is good as there have been times where positive data got nothing than a quick spike only to be sold later in the day. The IBB is back at the high end […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A pretty weak open for the sector but again this is nothing more than low volume chop as I see it. Unless it breaks below 113 on the IBB and then retests that as resistance or above 120 and then retests that as support, I will continue to argue that the sector is directionless. Of […]
July 13 Biotech Update
While we are talking about small numbers and small difference, I would argue that it looks like large caps are finally starting to show some relative strength to SMID. I would argue that this is a better case to build a new breakout than one led by SMID as those moves are likely more driven […]
May 31 Biotech Update
Some interesting news as we head into ASCO. While the trading action is a little better for the sector it is not exactly tearing it up. Of course, the lack of a real ASCO run up generally does not correlate with a lower than average chance of an ASCO hangover. It is possible that it […]
February 28 Biotech Update
Last night was an interesting night (to put it kindly). One is more a stock reaction story and the other is an unknown-unknown story. Let us dive into these issues. 1. The easier of the two is TSRO. Revenues were basically in line with perhaps a small miss on Zejula (consensus of $46M versus actual […]
January 2 Biotech Update
Welcome to the New Year full of hopes and questions. In the lead up to JPM (and likely a slow build up in news as companies try to take the spotlight earlier and earlier every year), I will spend the week on broad 2018 themes and thoughts. Of course, if news happens I will focus […]
December 14 Biotech Update
Volume and news is starting to dry up but there were some interesting tidbits to talk about but they are more interesting than really game changing. In any case, we are quickly approach the holiday lull but on the positive side that means we are closer to the JPM rush of news. 1. CLLS reported […]
September 11 Biotech Update
It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]
