I feel like the sector is in a better place to start this week than the start of last week. I have been thinking that we are closer to the end of the consolidation than the beginning and the trading last week reinforced that view. If we can build on that move early this week, […]
December 26th Biotech Update
We are ending the year with a bang. It looks like a lot of companies are wanting to get ahead of the JPM news cycle and are announcing deals pretty early. I do wonder now what this means for the JPM hype cycle as it we now have had a good number of larger bolt […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
July 5th Biotech Update
I suspect we are going to have a slow week even though the holiday is over. The summer is generally going to be slow as people are out of office and with a holiday landing on a Tuesday, my hunch is that this week is going to be slow for even the summer. I do […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
Incremental. That would be the word I use to describe the action in the sector outside of the big down day earlier in the week. I do not read this as necessarily bad as there has been ample opportunity to accelerate the move lower given we are hanging out at these levels but that follow […]
January 9th Biotech Update
A good start for JPM with deals and data. That should be positive for the sector, although I would say that all of the deals seem more bolt-on than transformative. I will be interested to see how it ends up playing out as there is certainly good news but nothing that is massive. All that […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
June 7th Biotech Update
I am back from my little vacation and have some catching up to do. The sector seems to be looking for direction as it bounced around from my perspective. I did not follow its movements closely but from the distance of the beach it looks as if the sector has not made a decision to […]
April 7th Biotech Update
It has been an up and down week and while some of the moves felt trend like, i.e. that they would be part of a more sustained move to the upside or downside, it seems like the week is one of sideways. There are still two trading days to make the week one of green […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So we did not have a bad day yesterday, although that only really is true if you look at the absolute performance and not the relative performance. That being said it was still better than what we have seen recently. We are set for a green start to the day and have some positive news […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Not a good start to the week for the markets and it seems related to the Evergrande, which is China’s second largest real estate company that looks on the verge of going bankrupt. The story is pretty typical with a property developer using too much leverage to grow too fast and get involve in unnecessary […]
July 9th Biotech Update
I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential. Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]
March 22nd Biotech Update
A more rigorous FDA. Rising interest rates. Rising COVID cases in the EU. Lack of M&A. A lot of clinical trial failures. These are the list (probably not comprehensive) of the risks that have been used to explain the selloff in the sector. None of these have gone away and yet we still have the […]
March 19th Biotech (and Energy) Update
Yesterday clearly did not instill a ton of confidence. That being said we did not break any lows so the path of setting a higher low and establishing a new move higher is still possible. The difference is that we are now closer to taking out the lows, which is not a comfortable position (especially […]
March 11th Biotech (and Energy) Update
I think we are clearly in what sort of looks like a bottoming process but one that seems like it will be quite messy. The sector continues to be unable to generate consistently strong days but at least yesterday ended up not being a disaster. While continuation would have been great, it did not breakdown […]
December 28th Biotech Update
As expected the news is slowing down and there is not a ton of news to talk about today if there is really anything news worthy. Given the lack of news I suspect that the sector and markets will continue the low volume seasonal trade, which means a bullish bias. Perhaps there is an added […]
December 14th Biotech Update
We should certainly see all time highs this week to continue. We are in a seasonally good period and the news is certainly supportive. If we are unable to run off of this news it sends a strong signal. Certainly we were already at highs but this news should bring even more buyers into the […]
November 23 Biotech Update
The market dynamics remain the same. We are entering what tends to be a seasonally positive period of the year, which might add some tailwind to the broader market. While I still think the market is going to focus on the prospects of the vaccine coming next year as opposed to the out of control […]
November 11th Biotech Update
Below are my comments on the guidelines that you can forward along. So it looks like the market has digested the outcome of the election for the most part. I still think there is going to be a tug of war in terms of COVID with the vaccine news pushing the post-COVID names but […]
October 1st Biotech Update
The sector has been a grind this week in that it appears unable to move higher but also is not breaking down at all. Every rally appears to be sold or unable to get any real traction (the open today is a perfect example in that it looks like we could have a good day […]
