The sector really does not want to make up its mind. I am a little surprised we have not seen a more clear signal of direction and I think the longer we go without a signal the quicker any move will be. It almost seems as if the sector is coiling for some sort of […]
August 7th Biotech Update
The market and sector seem to both be deciding what to do next and are basically drifting at current levels. I am a little surprised to see the sector drifting given that it is at a somewhat important level for the near term movement. I thought it would have decided whether it wants to break […]
June 1st Biotech Update
With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat. Riots. COVID. China tensions. Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient. Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]
May 14th Biotech Update
So we are in the pullback to the breakout levels and the sector has some decision making to do. Either this level holds and we confirm the breakout or we make our way lower and the “breakout” looks like a blow off top. A breakdown would not be a great signal (obviously) but this would […]
May 12th Biotech Update
We had our breakout and run yesterday and while there is little follow through today, I suspect that we get a continuation. It appears that the breakout is happening but the confirmation still needs to occur. The final signal would be to test the old resistance level with a selloff and to rally off the […]
May 8th Biotech Update
We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks. The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break. The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Do we get our turn around Tuesday? Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold. A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze. I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%. When the bounce happens it should be […]
March 12 Biotech Update
Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work. Will perhaps try again tomorrow. I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased. In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate. All of the negatives for the market remain. The President had an […]
March 9th Biotech Update
We remain in a macro world with the twin barrels of COVID and an oil price war hitting the market. This is the first time this entire selloff that I sense there is real panic. That being said I still think we entire a bear market which would be $271 on the SPY but keep […]
December 13 Biotech Update
There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]
November 20th Biotech Update
The trend is our friend and it seems like the XBI wants to get to $90, although any price between now and then could see the pause. The worry would not be if we pause and pullback but to make sure that the pullback puts in a higher low. I am going to be a […]
