Not the best start to the week but like I said I think we need a positive catalyst (like M&A) to really move above the resistance. That being said this is a pretty bad day with broad weakness. I think what we are looking for now is setting a higher low and we are in […]
October 18th Biotech Update
I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
April 20th Biotech Update
This week has been pretty tame in the sense that we have not really built on the move higher but have not broken below that $80 level that I think is key to hold. I think we are all a little impatient with the sector given its recent performance but grinding right above the $80 […]
February 17th Biotech Update
Just as we thought we were getting cleared of the Fed, they interjected themselves into the market again with perhaps longer rate hikes and perhaps even faster. Whether that comes to pass or not remains to be seen but the market did not quite have the more hawkish tone priced into the valuations. I do […]
December 20th Biotech Update
It was not a great start to the week. We still remain in that range and what we want to avoid is a low volume breakdown of that range. I do not think it would signal a clear breakdown if that were to occur, but it would put the sector teetering on the edge. Ideally, […]
December 19th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week but we continue to be in that range and as trading dries up this week, I doubt we get a massive high volume breakdown or breakout. We are at the lower end of the range and perhaps there is a little more downside, but we likely bounce back […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
April 1st Biotech Update
It is not an April Fools Day joke but the sector outperformed the broader markets for the March and I think was even barely green. While I think we would want more than barely green and would want an even greater outperformance, it has to be a positive sign for the sector to outperform in […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Guess what, the sector remains range bound. We approached the upper end of the range and it was a pretty quick move to the upper end of the range but now we are pulling back. I thought there was a chance that the sector would get closer to the upper end of the range before […]
September 3rd Biotech Update
It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
June 28th Biotech Update
I was thinking we might have had a little more momentum this morning with the data this past weekend but it is pretty muted so far. Perhaps the lack of M&A was disappointing or perhaps there is not a broader read-through from the data or perhaps the momentum is going to build throughout the day. […]
May 7th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We broke to new lows so how far will we fall? That is the natural question but it actually looks like we hit what could be pretty strong support. So is it possible that we actually bounce as opposed to collapse? If you look at the previous lower lows, they are not actually that different. […]
February 26th Biotech Update
We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside. Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks. That is a fast move into bear market territory. I find it […]
November 16th Biotech Update
Another start to the week with some more vaccine announcements (positive). It was good to see more positive vaccine data but it does not change the dynamic that I see with the market. There appears to be a real light at the end of the tunnel but the path to the end will be very […]
November 6th Biotech Update
It seems like the election is all but over. The votes have turned and clearly point to a Bide victory and as of writing speculation is that Trump will admit defeat. Of course, Trump does not have to concede for Biden to win but it would assuage investors and remove the last bit of risk […]
October 19th Biotech Update
I waited a little to write today hoping that something would pop in the feed that was interesting to talk about but nothing is happening to start the week. As boring as that could be it is useful in that it provides a pretty clean look at sector sentiment as there is nothing as to […]
June 19th Biotech Update
The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range. All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range. At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]
May 8th Biotech Update
We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks. The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break. The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]
April 7 Biotech Update
So the crisis is over! Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving. It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs. The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]
March 9th Biotech Update
We remain in a macro world with the twin barrels of COVID and an oil price war hitting the market. This is the first time this entire selloff that I sense there is real panic. That being said I still think we entire a bear market which would be $271 on the SPY but keep […]
