We in a macro market. COVID days up and COVID days down. I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa. I think the only way to avoid that […]
February 26th Biotech Update
First, I apologize for the emails last night. We all received them as well and no one understands why quite yet. We are looking into it right now and hopefully it was a simple one time glitch. We now have had two big down days in a row and is starting to put some fear […]
February 21st Biotech Update
I am back and the sector has barely changed. I do feel, however, that we are closer to a move lower than before. The market seems to be revising both the scale of the COVID epidemic as well as its economic impact. If that is true then the next move will very likely be lower […]
February 18th Biotech Update
What an odd market. Fundamentally it should be struggling. It was overbought and PE stretched and we are now starting to see earnings warnings from the corona virus and yet it is likely to continue to move higher. Biotechs had the worst JPM in terms of tepid news flow and a slew of secondaries since […]
January 29 Biotech Update
The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]
January 21 Biotech Update
A long weekend and we start the week like JPM with little to now news. If you stare at the chart closely enough and squint your eyes, we might be setting up a new uptrend with higher lows and higher highs assuming we break above the highs of last week. I would not bet the […]
January 17 Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]
January 16 Biotech Video Update
So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. https://www.twitch.tv/chimeraresearch Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]
January 13 Biotech Update
It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
January 9th Biotech Update
I think macro is officially in the background for now. It seems clear the US will not respond and most encouraging is that the US noted that they will not necessarily equate the Iranian proxies with Iran. In other words, everyone is de-escalating. This is not over as economic sanctions remain and that is part […]
January 7 Biotech Update
We remain in the calm before the storm (perhaps both macro and in terms of JPM). I still think the market is underestimating possible Iranian responses and seems to be slightly exhaling in that nothing has happened yet. I too have felt that relaxation but I still cannot believe that Iran would allow the assassination […]
December 16 Biotech Update
We have a decent news morning but I want to focus on three and can do so with a Western theme: the good, the bad, and the ugly. 1. The good: Clearly this is AMRN. We got an early Christmas present with an expanded label. They did not get the primary prevention but also seemed […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector remains strong and we have ASH coming so we could see a run in some names this week. Given the recent strength and the potential run-up (uptrends are prime run-up candidates), I would not be surprised to see a sell the news reaction on ASH data. Expectations are growing with the valuations and […]
November 25th Biotech Update
If it were not for some M&A this would be a quiet start to the week. I suspect that in the end it will be pretty low on fundamental news given the holiday week but we are off to a good start. This should provide even more support to the trend and the broken record […]
November 19th Biotech Update
The leak is finally fixed. It only took six hours yesterday and an inadvertent flooding of the laundry room but it is done. Now I need to get the dry wall fixed before being completely done but some progress. Speaking of progress, the sector continues within its trend. It has been grinding higher marking higher […]
November 13 Biotech Update
All three SMIDs this week had positive news although only AMRN really took off on it. Of course, AMRN had the smallest positive move into the week and probably had the highest amount of doubts over the catalyst, so it sort of makes sense. I want to spend today going back over the other two […]
November 12th Biotech Update
I know the actual AdCom is in a couple of days but the briefing docs release today gave us the final move for this weekly trifecta. This could also be a good day for the sector if we can break above the recent highs, which should trigger another leg higher in the trend. The fundamentals […]
November 11 Biotech Update
This is not necessarily a big week for the sector (the trend still seems in intact) but certainly some big SMID catalyst for stocks that I follow. In fact, there will be a trifecta of news (two of which already happened) that could be meaningful. So let us dive into what had happened. 1. PIRS […]
November 5th Biotech Update
Let us see if the trend is our friend. We hit what should be some resistance and have stalled. Previously, this led to a day or two of a shallow pullback followed by a push to new highs. We are in the second day of a potential pullback so we should be setting up for […]
September 16 Biotech Update
It is looking like a macro week, although this could resolve itself fairly quickly. The attacks on the ARAMCO production facility is likely to have long term effects on oil but whether or not this leads to a broader conflict should be decided in a couple of days. Obviously there will be some response but […]
