Well, the sector was able to do a little bit of a kick save yesterday but we are certainly not out of the woods. Once would have to think that lower is still the more likely trend until we stop setting lower highs. On the positive side, we still have not set a lower low […]
August 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Well, that was quite the bounce yesterday. The morning start off well especially given the lack of market moving news but then a grind higher turned into a run. I would look at the highs of July 27th and July 28th as key levels. Despite the great move, if we cannot break above those levels […]
July 1st Biotech Update
The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point. We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side. At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher. […]
June 30th Biotech Update
Sorry, I missed writing on Monday as I try to stay as consistent as possible on Monday as I think it sets up the week. My daughter went on a beech vacation with her friend and their family late last week. Long story short, she got home sick and led to being physically ill, so […]
June 17th Biotech Update
In a couple of days we are near the upper end of the range for the XBI. There have been some spikes above this level and one to around $108 that marks the toppity top of the range but we are basically in a neutral space right now. It is possible that momentum brings us […]
June 15th Biotech Update
The sector is right at a point of decision. The XBI is below the $100 level but if you look back it peaked at the $99 level late December and again in mid-February. A close below $99 signals a breaking of the recent range and I would become more bearish. We have not quite done […]
June 8th Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least. The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising. My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
The ups and downs continue as we remain in what could be the developing range. I could be wrong but I think a range bound market would be the most frustrating and money losing market for the largest number of people and hence is the likely outcome. Money might just rotate between sectors moving them […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
April 15th Biotech Update
Well, today is a day where we should have turned off the alarmed, rolled over in bed, and went back to sleep. Certainly not a good start after what was a pretty strong Tuesday. Nothing has really changed fundamentally, so it seems investors are trying to figure out where the next move will and pile […]
April 8th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting in that we had that reversal from the morning highs but it did not seem to spook the bulls as much as I would have thought. Today we have another move higher in the morning but let us see if this one actually sticks. It seems like we might be at some […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
April 2nd Biotech Update
So it has been interesting the past couple days in the market. There was a lot of buying to end March but I think most saw that as the 60/40 (stock/bond) funds rebalancing. In other words, the move in the markets with stocks crashing and bonds flying meant that the 60/40 funds needed to sell […]
March 31st Biotech Update
A decent amount to talk about (some good some not so good). Yesterday I talked a little about the potential for the bottom to be in and data from China is actually supportive of that thesis. The PMI both bounced back in March and were better than expected. To be fair, a positive PMI survey […]
March 27th Biotech Update
Today is going to be an interesting day. The news has not been good this week but the market has had a nice recovery. I would expect that the news does not get any better this week and Boris Johnson has actually tested positive for COVID. We open lower and it seems setup well for […]
March 25th Biotech Update
I am still trying to get setup at home. I order a new desktop because I cannot stand writing on a laptop (I know I am a grumpy old man already). In any case, I will try and get more notes out on this laptop even though it drives me a little crazy typing on […]
March 16th Biotech Update
It seems like the market and country is starting to come to terms with the scale of the epidemic and its economic impact but the trend remains until it is broken. The trend is crash at this point. I will be putting stink bids in trying to catch flash crashes as I still think those […]
March 12 Biotech Update
Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work. Will perhaps try again tomorrow. I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased. In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate. All of the negatives for the market remain. The President had an […]
March 4th Biotech Update
Who would have thought that a Joe Biden Super Tuesday victory would cure the corona virus? The market is rallying on the election as it seems to put Biden back in as the democrat frontrunner. I suspect that the market would strongly prefer Biden over Sanders as the economy and market actually did pretty well […]
