Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 31 Biotech Update
No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]
May 23 Biotech Update
So we have some news to discuss. I missed out yesterday as I was at an elementary school graduation ceremony that lasted longer than I expected. There is nothing thesis changing in any of the recent news but certainly some interesting information. The sector is trading awfully and could reasonably be attributed to the spate […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
March 31 Biotech Update
The sector in general seems to be drifting if not a slight negative bias but we are still seeing good news move stocks higher, which is not a bad setup into AACR. This tends to be an earlier stage conference, so less fundamental thesis changing data and more incremental. I will be interested to see […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]
Dave Trading – April 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 10 Biotech Update
The sector has been interesting. Given the past 18 months, it feels easy to be bearish on every pullback consolidation but I am incrementally more positive. It is starting to feel more like a pause at an important level of resistance as opposed to the start of a large retracement. Obviously we likely need some […]
February 22 Biotech Update
A little bit of news since yesterday and I will focus on them but more broadly the sector seemed to struggle yesterday. It had been outperforming so a day of relative weakness is not unexpected but was certainly a sell biotech and buy everything else sort of day. Let us see if that pattern continues […]
February 3 Biotech Update
I was correct in my prediction that I would need to take care of a sick child (and still need to do so today but have some more time). It has been an interesting week but pretty much expected. I will circle around to what I saw as the most interesting and important events. 1. […]
January 30 Biotech Update
Volatility is the name of the game with the daily flow of disruptive executive orders coming out of Washington but despite this the VIX has been going down and the market in general has been holding up well. At some point this disconnect will correct and it will not be a simple gap down (or […]
January 6 Biotech Update
News continues to come in (both expected and unexpected) and the sector remains strong into JPM. Usually there is a tailwind JPM week that can last a little but eventually all the secondaries that come after JPM stall the momentum. Last year was obviously an exception to that pattern but it seems (at least so […]
December 26 Biotech Update
I hope that everyone is having a good holiday season. News has slowed to a crawl and I will start making the 2017 previews unless there is some breaking news. I will start with large caps and move down the capital structure. 1. My 2017 large cap biotech pick is CELG (surprise) but I am […]
November 21 Biotech Update
An exciting return to the sector for me and I mean that sarcastically. Not really much to talk about heading into this Thanksgiving week and I would not be surprised if the only news we see this week is from companies trying to sneak out bad news. Volume should be low with drifting price action […]
November 1 Biotech Update
We have more of the same with basically solid fundamental reports but certainly not perfect and I suspect it will lead to another day lower with the outperformer that will likely fade tomorrow. Despite heading into earnings season with low expectations, awful sentiment, and a large sell off, the market has chosen to focus on […]
October 31 Biotech Update
There is nothing that seems to help the sector. The clear sentiment headwind is the election and that is certainly plausible. A non-democratic sweep of the presidency, senate, and house should be good for the sector. Of course, everyone expects that so usually when everyone expects something the market does not act in that way. […]
October 4 Biotech Update
Today is certainly a better start. It seems that the sector is trading to a certain extent on macro issues with the DB concerns leading to risk on versus risk off action. The sector will always be a victim to large risk off moves, so if the DB situation resolves I would not be surprised […]
October 3 Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market or sector but there really seems to be little conviction on this move. So we meander lower and the sector moves with the broader market. I think the market it getting closer to its next big move as we are closing in on four months […]
