It has been a little while but I am back and it seems like I have not missed a ton of news despite it being earning season. The sector has more or less chugged along but seems a little heavy at this point. It is not clear to me whether it is the sector or […]
July 1st Biotech Update
The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point. We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side. At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher. […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
February 19th Biotech Update
The curious case of the flat market continues. At this point, I would call it a clear trend (with the trend being sideways). I know I have been waiting for the move out of this sideways actions and thought it was imminent but at this point perhaps we treat it like any other trend and […]
January 31 Biotech Update
The market seems on edge. It looks like people want to sell but have been so trained to be the dips that it is almost like muscle memory at this point. This sets up for a very quick and severe drop if it happens. In other words, if the market suddenly thinks this dip will […]
January 10th Biotech Update
We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]
November 4 Biotech Update
Of course we get some meaningful news when I am unable to write but at least it was good news. And of course the sector does well when I am not here (but at least it did well). Looking at the chart there really seems like a nice little uptrend has developed with clear higher […]
October 30 Biotech Update
The price action has not been great the past couple of days despite continued positive fundamentals. This could simply be a consolidation of the recent move higher and setting up a higher low for the sector. I would lean towards the sector setting up a higher low at this point as the macro is fine […]
October 29 Biotech Update
There is nothing that should stop the sector from running higher. Fundamentals look good and it has perhaps the best set of earnings among all sector this quarter. Of course, what it should do and what it does do not always correlate. Sentiment is still negative and could hold it down but fundamentals look good. […]
September 30 Biotech Update
The sector continued to underperform. I suspect part of this is a continuation of the overall underperformance and part is increasing fear around Warren’s rise in the polls. That is not going away anytime soon. Warren is not going to suddenly fall off a cliff and it is not as if she is the only […]
September 16 Biotech Update
It is looking like a macro week, although this could resolve itself fairly quickly. The attacks on the ARAMCO production facility is likely to have long term effects on oil but whether or not this leads to a broader conflict should be decided in a couple of days. Obviously there will be some response but […]
September 9th Biotech Update
We have some interesting news to start the week and of course it leads to a flat sector with the broader market green. It seems like the sector is underperforming and again I think that is odd given how well the earnings came through last quarter. Perhaps we are close enough to the election that […]
August 26 Biotech Update
Market starts the week higher but I do not trust it as there is the old saying that markets never bottom on Fridays. To be fair futures were down a lot and have rallied before the market opened but I remain suspicious of the green open. The ideal scenario for a robust turnaround would be […]
August 23 Biotech Update
So the sector feels a lot worse than the chart indicates. We are right around support at $80 and that seems to have been holding. We are approaching, however, a decision point. We can break below what is support for a leg down or break out of the downward trending making that look like a […]
August 12th Biotech Update
Another week with another set of macro concerns. I was waiting to see if there would be any interesting biotech news but I guess not. There was some late last week but this morning seems driven by macro (your choice between Argentina and/or Hong Kong and/or China trade). I see little on the horizon that […]
July 31 Biotech Update
Well, this would have been sooner but as soon as I got to my office I had a train of people “needing” to talk to me immediately. I did not even have a chance to get coffee. In any case, I have a break from the people and can look at the market. It finally […]
June 4 Biotech Update
Are we bouncing or starting a new trend higher? Both are plausible explanations for the recent move as the selling has been pretty consistent and so a dead cat bounce was at least due. The sector outperformed yesterday, although it is modestly underperforming today. I still think we are in a broader macro driven market […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
May 1 Biotech Update
The sector continues to lag. What I see as a little odd is that pharma appears to be outperforming biotech. If Medicare for All was going to collapse the US drug market, why would pharma be immune and be doing well? It is an odd disconnect and speaks to something else going on in the […]
