Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
March 15th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the day. It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally. To be fair when you have two of […]
February 1st Biotech Update
Yesterday was an interesting day. I took a step back and looked at the chart and while you might think I am crazy, if you squint in the right way it looks like we have already broken out. Maybe. If we use $87 as the top of the range, then we broke above it on […]
January 30th Biotech Update
I feel like a broken record as we start yet another week with the potential to break out to the upside but not the best start in that attempt. There is not a lot to cover today, so it will be quick but we do have earnings that could be an excuse for the move […]
December 13th Biotech Update
A decent start to the week, which was to be expected with the large deal. AMGN held up better than I would have expected, and the sector did well but remains in the range. We are getting to the holiday season and so I would not read too much into the moves but we still […]
December 12th Biotech Update
I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction. It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise. This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]
December 6th Biotech Update
The year seems to be winding down as we stay in this little range. I am not convinced that this is a bad thing (as long as we end up breaking to the upside as this will be nice strong support). I think the Fed and rates has faded to the background a little but […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
October 14th Biotech Update
I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods. The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high. It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]
October 13th Biotech Update
We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode. They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done. I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time. The problem is that in […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off. I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods. I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Well, that was not a great day. Interest rates and risk off are not kind to the sector. As long as we can hold support I think we will be fine. I am not convinced that this is going to be a large and sustained sell off as opposed to a quick adjustment. I get […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
August 4th Biotech Update
Are we finally starting to see the wheels of M&A loosen? Perhaps. We got some this morning as well as a new rumor. It is enough to move the sector (at least a little). We are definitely in a different spot as the news is actually moving the sector higher. It was not that long […]
July 14th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing ok as we inch closer to earnings season. It will be interesting to see how the sector moves on earnings as there is nothing that should really surprise anyone. There are still some issues outside the companies that could impact trading. There is some drug pricing reforms being discussed […]
May 27th Biotech Update
This week has been a little disappointing. Not in the typical we crashed to new lows disappointing but the general market has done well but the sector has lagged. As disappointing as the week has been, we are still sort of setup to make a higher low and potentially a higher high. So I understand […]
May 25th Biotech Update
It looked as though the sector tried to reverse a couple of times but it ended up being a red day. It would have been nice to get a good red to green reversal with follow through today but at least we are starting green today. It is important to have a good day today […]
April 28th Biotech Update
Well, the sector and market is a mess right now. This makes it an interesting earning season as we have to content not just with what the quarterly results are telling us but also in an uncertain economic background. The US GDP unexpectedly contracted, although it might be overstating the weakness of the economy as […]
April 7th Biotech Update
It has been an up and down week and while some of the moves felt trend like, i.e. that they would be part of a more sustained move to the upside or downside, it seems like the week is one of sideways. There are still two trading days to make the week one of green […]
March 25th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. I am encouraged that we continue to maintain this range and consolidate at these levels. The key next will be to break out of this range to the upside and ideally it is done on the back of some positive fundamental news (M&A or positive data […]
