Are we having a false breakout? Maybe but I would not think that is the base case assumption. Breakouts can be choppy and we still likely have a uncertainty in politics (even though that has come down a lot). Until we get closer to the lower end of the range I would not start talking […]
October 29th Biotech Update
Tell me if you have heard this before but the sector appears to be range bound. There is nothing that has happened to indicate anything other than a range bound market, On the positive side, we have moved away from the lower end of the range and are much closer to the middle but I […]
August 7th Biotech Update
I sort of wonder if we have tested support with the recent selling and now are going to move higher. While the selling was related to fears over the economy, I also read that a large portion could be related to the surprise rate high in Japan that setoff a large unwinding of the Japanese […]
February 23rd Biotech Update
We are very close to breaking out. I think it would be a nice way to end the week to get that initial breakout and run higher but there is actually not a lot of news that could drive it. Rates expectations are a little less dovish with most now not expecting the first rate […]
February 8th Biotech Update
Still in the choppy sort of market but we are at least holding up. I understand the annoyance that the broader market is doing well and the sector is really lagging from relative sense but when the sector runs it will make up a lot of this underperformance. January was a massive month for follow […]
February 5th Biotech Update
I would not say that we are at the end of the chop for the sector but are probably closer to the end than the beginning. I saw some notes that blamed the lack of rate cuts on the market but I am not sure that is the issue. It is true that rates remain […]
November 1st Biotech Update
The best sign for the overall market was the reversal on a day in which the SMID space could have been hammered by the SRPT news. The sector started lower but then recovered to end solidly green. That is a strong signal as to the overall health of the sector. That is not to say […]
October 25th Biotech Update
A bounce feels good but as had been the case it really means nothing unless we can break above the lower high (which in this case is around $72). Every one of these bounces has the chance to do so but as you know my mantra has been that we are likely to see $62 […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Are we getting to a near term bottom in the sector? Perhaps, the selling is getting to pretty extreme levels and we did not end yesterday on the lows. We did not really do a massive reversal either, but I do not think we have a near-term chance of getting to the multi-year lows of […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
September 5th Biotech Update
I think we are finally out of the riskiest area and are setting up a potential to break the downtrend. I think trading on Friday broke the clear downtrend, but we probably want to see more before declaring it over. Of course, not having the downtrend is different than having an established uptrend. It would […]
August 28th Biotech Update
Is my belief that we make our way to the 52-week lows before finding support to start a trend higher in threat? Possibly. Is it strange that I would think that on what looks like one good start to a week? A little but I do think we have the potential to shift to a […]
July 26th Biotech Update
Not really an inspiring week for the sector so far. The broader sector continues to muddle where we really need some excitement and momentum. I still think we in potential trouble when the broader market corrects. Perhaps we somehow get money when the broader market corrects but we generally go down even more when the […]
May 23rd Biotech Update
A nice little rally yesterday and hopefully we can continue that momentum. Obviously the ideal scenario is that the sector can break out and go to a higher high after having set a higher low. To be fair, we have been in this situation before and even had a mini upward trend established only to […]
May 18th Biotech Update
The FTC news with AMGN and HZNP was an awful way to start the week but in all honesty, the sector seems to have held up. The green day yesterday could be setting up a higher low, which assumes we make a higher high. I would not say the all clear has been signaled but […]
May 16th Biotech Update
The sector absolutely cannot catch a break. Everything was looking good and solid and now the proverbial rug has been pulled out. There is no recovering today. It will be red but the broader move is not done (at least it does not have to be). I think as long as this pullback stays above […]
May 9th Biotech Update
Overall the market seems to be digesting the recent moves, which is fine. A day or two sitting around these levels before a push higher is probably better for the longer run potential of the next move. As long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows, it remains a positive environment for the […]
April 28th Biotech Update
It is more than a little disheartening to see a strong rally that leaves out the sector. If one wants to try and look at the bright side it saved us from breaking down and we seem to be bouncing off of a support level. Of course, it looks pretty meaningless if we cannot rally […]
April 24th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week after a couple of bust Mondays with deals. We are getting into earnings seasons and so it is not surprising that we slow as companies get ready to report. I do not think there is anything that will be very compelling or thesis changing in earning and I suspect […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
