I figured there would be a more positive bias as we headed into the end of the year but the market has seen some selling. Obviously volume is low but the new Clinton talk of drug prices plus the low volumes is probably not good for the sector. Just as the drug pricing issue was […]
December 15 Biotech Update
The sector is doing better today but I am still not a believer in the market. Perhaps that in and of itself is a sign of a bottom and perhaps the slowing volumes into the end of the year will bias the sector and markets higher. Regardless, we are still in a macro market and […]
December 2 Biotech Update
The sector was weak yesterday and this morning at the open. It is not clear to me if the weakness is just a give back from the low volume rallies last week or something news related. There was some noise out of DC about GILD and the pricing of Sovaldi. There was a massive report […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are heading into ASH and that is sure to be the topic of much discussion but I find it more and more difficult to trade these medical conferences as everyone is trying to trade these medical conferences. Not only do you need to accurately figure out the catalyst but also need to accurately figure […]
November 25 Biotech Update
Trading is slow this week but news is not. Yesterday was better but I still think it is too early to call the sector back but at the very least I believe is has found its footing. Interestingly it seems that the SMID caps are outperforming the larger caps (finally) although they have a lot […]
November 23 Biotech Update
Of course, it is Thanksgiving week and the kids have off school so I will keep this focused on the big news of the day and that is the PFE/AGN merger agreement. I am doing this quickly so please excuse typos and other issues. 1. The deal is cheaper than I expected and I thought […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The sector still cannot gain real footing and follow positive days with additional positive days. That being said as long as the positive days either outnumber or have higher gains than the losing day loses, then we can churn higher (or at the very least churn sideways and build a nice base). I am sure […]
November 13 Biotech Update
It has been a tough couple of days with pretty broad weakness but we will see how we end the week as many stocks have had a decent run so a pause is not unexpected (or bearish- yet). I am still not convinced the rallies have not been short covering and if we are to […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The market seems mixed and searching for direction. It seems hard to see a clear trend in the sector or within the sector. Some large caps are strong and others weak. Some SMID are strong and others weak. Perhaps this is the start of my “stock picking” thesis playing out but it could also simply […]
November 4 Biotech Update
The sector certainly seems to be getting it legs back. The SMID are finally starting to get a bid (even if it is partly driven by short covering but it has to start somewhere). In addition, earnings have been good and now we are entering a period of both data catalysts and a seasonally positive […]
November 2 Biotech Update
We finally get a merger Monday of sorts although only one of the deals is a public company. It will be telling to a certain extent how the SMIDs respond to the deals. I (and many others) thought that we need a pickup in M&A to spark additional interest in the space as well as […]
October 29 Biotech Update
As I noted before, it appears that the sector is improving and while I would not say it has turned, I would argue that the odds are better that the next large move will be higher rather than lower. This would especially be the case if we start to see M&A pick up. The potential […]
October 28 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be getting its feet but unevenly and in fits and starts. It looks like the large caps are probably the most consistent outperformers with some strong SMID names but as a group it is much more mixed. We continue to be in earnings seasons and likely explains the outperformance of the […]
October 23 Biotech Update
Unfortunately, the discussion for the sector continues to revolve around specialty pharma. This has brought the sector down (although perhaps not down as far as we would have thought, so perhaps that is a positive) and generated significant underperformance to the broader market. At some point, the negative headlines for the sector will end and […]
October 21 Biotech Update
The sector continues to be under pressure, although we seem to be staying above the recent lows which remains critical. We are entering earnings season and it will be interesting to see if earnings without M&A is enough to spark buying. My base case is good earnings will be enough to stop the decline but […]
October 14 Biotech Update
I am not sure if the sector sold off yesterday as simply a normal short term move or whether there were real concerns about the democratic debate. I suspect a portion of the selling was likely related to the debate, which is silly as I have noted before politicians have moved on from the pricing […]
October 12 Biotech Update
Another start to the week and another week without the M&A that many think is needed to move the sector higher. I worry a little about that argument as one would like to see the sector move higher off of fundamentals and not adding more and more takeover premiums into stocks. That being said I […]
October 5 Biotech Update
Today is going to be a nice tell for the sector. We essentially have a positive market backdrop but more importantly competing headlines. There is the continued pricing discussion highlighted by high profile VRX articles in the New York Times and then the positive data from ONCE. If the sector can shrug off the pricing […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Just when it seemed like the market could have been getting its footing we have the weak jobs report and we are back to a macro driven sell off. I think down continues to be the near term trend until proven otherwise. I am looking at both the VIX and put/call ratios and think they […]
September 21 Biotech Update
Another slow news start to the week. The market background seems better but with a lack of real news/catalysts, the sector is likely we trade in line with market. It will be interesting to see how the sector trades with a lack of news as it may give us at least some sense as to […]
