It is a mixed bag today in terms of stock reactions but the actual numbers continue to be good. I am not exactly sure why some stocks are reacting better than others but I will take a stab at it. In any case, it is hard to argue that the fundamentals of the sector do […]
July 18 Biotech Update
Looking around there is really not a ton of sector news. The market is flat which could be considered a win given the Turkey coup attempt Friday but in terms of sector moving data or events, there is really nothing going on. It is a little interesting that we have had a dearth of mergers […]
July 13 Biotech Update
The market continued its strength (even if we dipped red for a second today). If you remember in the lead up to the BREXT vote the cash balance sheets for institutional investors were very high. With the market running after BREXIT you are getting buying panics as the buying dips have not appeared. In addition, […]
July 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday was not a disaster but it was some kind of underperformance. Even as we got essentially a buyers panic at the end of the day, it still left many biotechs red. So on the good side, we did not break down but on the bad side it shows the utter lack of interest in […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Really not much news but the more things change the more they stay the same. We seem destined to once again test the lows in the sector and one has to worry about each test. On the positive side the support keeps holding but on the negative side each test probably increases the risk of […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Not much in terms of news to end the week as we head into ASCO. The jobs report may make this a macro day sell off (although if you dig into the jobs report the big miss seems to be driven entirely by the Verizon strike, so when that ends this should completely reverse). In […]
June 2 Biotech Update
I missed a day but not much happened. The sector continues to do well and it seems to be slowly turning sentiment around. The one negative (or perhaps positive) is that the ISI traders noted that there is still not buying demand and the move seems to be driven by a lack of sellers and […]
May 31 Biotech Update
So we got a little takeover Tuesday but not the mega deals that would have been transformative. I think we are at the point that we likely needed a deal after the long weekend to keep the momentum going. This is not to say we need deals every week but I suspect it would have […]
May 25 Biotech Update
The market continues higher and the sector with it. We seem to be moving away from the previous lows with broader participation with SMID and large caps. This market continues to be hated and I suspect people are still underinvested in healthcare. This all makes me marginally more bullish in the near term even though […]
May 24 Biotech Update
I do not think anything dramatic happened when I was away. The sector seems to be holding the support which is most important. In addition, one could perhaps argue that the outperformance has continued to a modest extent. All of that being said volumes are low and will likely go lower as we enter the […]
May 18 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a precarious position, which is nothing new. ISI had a call yesterday with its technician and the overwhelming view on most of the stocks was that they are at a decision point- the short term chart does not look great but they are at long term support. He tended to lean […]
Dave-Trading – May edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
May 11 Biotech Update
Yesterday the sector was a little weak but that is neither surprising nor a killer given the strength we saw Monday. That being said we cannot see continued under-performance and have a positive view in the near term. I am starting to think of the performance of the sector as less strong or weak and […]
May 9 Biotech Update
We have some news to start that week that all else being equal would be positive catalysts. The price action today off of the news should be a good tell as to whether sentiment has shifted a little in the sector but I would wait to see where we end the day not where we […]
May 6 Biotech Update
So more of the same yesterday and we are likely heading to a bounce in the sector as the recent selling seems to have been relentless. The bounce might not happen today but it is likely in the near term. The interesting part of the bounce is not whether it happens (it will) but whether […]
May the 4th Be With You Biotech Update
It has certainly not been a good start to the week for the sector or really the market, although it seems like the sector is underperforming. As frustrating as it is after all of the under-performance, we cannot miss the forest for the trees and note that we are still not close to the recent […]
May 2 Biotech Update
It was not a great end of the week for the sector. Trading has not been good and earnings were fine but not exciting. As much as the sector has bounced from its recent lows, it still does not feel like sentiment has changed dramatically. It as an odd dynamic that I will talk about […]
Dave-Trading – April Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No positionPreview 2-3 […]
April 13 Biotech Update
It has been a strange sort of trading. The sector did well last week but has been underperforming for a couple days now. Ideally this is simply back testing the move from the AGN/PFE breakup but we clearly need to turn it around soon. We seem to be stuck in the sell every rally environment […]
April 11 Biotech Update
I do not think the week is starting with the news everybody wants, i.e. buyouts, but I do think we are getting closer to that point. The sector has been searching for direction at the end of last week but it had a nice run after the AGN/PFE break, so a pause is not unexpected. […]
