It looks like the market and sector are going to be tied to the fate of the tax bill (at least that is how it seemed yesterday) and that makes sense given how many breaks it provides to businesses. The sector modestly outperformed the broader tech sector, which is likely some kind of catch up […]
November 17 Biotech Update
We had a decent bounce yesterday and perhaps we will get a continuation. The sector is over sold as are a bunch of individual names. I am not convinced the bounce is the end of the selling but there were some names that I bought as even if this is not the bottom they are […]
November 15 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle and at least today we can blame the larger macro market but the fact is if the markets in general are going to correct, the sector is not going to hold up. I would not mind a broader correction as it likely would be the last leg in the biotech […]
November 10 Biotech Update
We have our answer to what the sector wants to do as the number of large moves higher by the odd stock is over and the large days down continue. It certainly looks like the series of large positive moves were masking a much broader weakness as the trend now is to sell every SMID […]
September 11 Biotech Update
It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]
January 31 Biotech Update
We had some earnings but the real potential mover of the sector is the meeting this morning with Trump. The headlines are still early but it looks like a net positive for the sector but we will see how it is interpreted. If history repeats these meetings tend to see some minor announced concession in […]
November 22 Biotech Update
More of the same in terms of slow news and likely decreasing volumes into the weekend. We do have a couple pieces of fundamental news to talk about but nothing groundbreaking in its importance. 1. The most meaningful is the removal of the partial clinical hold of the head and neck combo trials for AZN. […]
November 15 Biotech Update
The initial move from the election seems long in the legs and perhaps is ready to pause. We have seen a couple of companies do secondaries, which is a perfectly rational and reasonable response. It has been an awful environment to raise cash, so many need cash and this is a nice time to refill […]
November 4 Biotech Update
There has been nothing reasonable, rational, or predictable about the price action in the sector recently. The sell off yesterday on the ASH abstracts (supposedly the catalyst) is the height of irrational. This is not to say that there was no relevant data but 90%+ of the abstract data were either not new or not […]
November 2 Biotech Update
Any selling we see today cannot really be blamed on sentiment or the elections as we had our first day (in my opinion) of fundamentally bad earnings. Up to this point, it seems that the earnings were in-line to better than expectations but certainly not perfect. This is not the case for the big earnings […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Earnings have started and so far nothing great but nothing horrible. In fact there were some notable misses but we may be at the point that misses will rally stocks given how low expectations have fallen. So not only do we need to pay attention to what the earnings say about the fundamentals of the […]
October 21 Biotech Update
Clearly the sector did not turn the corner after the presidential debate even though it should have assuaged concerns over the importance of drug pricing to the candidates. The sector had a small recovery and with the positive news released last night, this should have been a nice tailwind. Any sort of early pop has […]
October 10 Biotech Update
It is a solid positive reaction to ESMO across the sector (with some notable exceptions). While there are number of potential topics, I want to focus on one as it has very broad implications that we need to watch not just in the near term but longer term. 1. BMY front line data were an […]
October 4 Biotech Update
Today is certainly a better start. It seems that the sector is trading to a certain extent on macro issues with the DB concerns leading to risk on versus risk off action. The sector will always be a victim to large risk off moves, so if the DB situation resolves I would not be surprised […]
October 3 Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market or sector but there really seems to be little conviction on this move. So we meander lower and the sector moves with the broader market. I think the market it getting closer to its next big move as we are closing in on four months […]
September 21 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly heating up and we still seem to be at the point where good news is rewarded and bad news is creating isolated damage. Not only do we have the tailwinds that I have been talking about but last week hedge funds were underweight the sector and continuing to sell. Every day […]
September 20 Biotech Update
A little but more news today and there are actually some interesting implications. Yesterday was actually not great in terms of trading given the weakening towards the end of the day but with more positive news today we should see the rally continue. Again, if it struggles on the back of positive news yesterday and […]
September 14 Biotech Update
The market seems to reversing from the decline yesterday, although not to the same extent of the selloff. This is odd trading in terms of these large swings on little news but it does appear that the sector continues to outperform the market (perhaps more so in the up days than in the down days). […]
August 8 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be struggling a little but it would not be stunning to see some underperformance and consolidation after the recent run. We continue to get earnings headlines but the vast majority of sector moving calls and earnings are passed. 1. EPZM reported earnings and there is nothing new in it, so it […]
August 3 Biotech Update
It is more of the same but we had a nice late day rumor yesterday that triggered a reversal higher. Outside of that rumor not much in the way of news. While these rumors tend to be a nice source of intraday moves, these are generally not sustainable as even if they are true, the […]
