I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
March 17th Biotech Update
What is going on with the sector? It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out. Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down. Obviously that is possible and we need to […]
June 19th Biotech Update
The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range. All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range. At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]
May 11th Biotech Update
We were able to break above resistance last Friday but could not quite close above it and did not get the run on the breakout. This morning the sector is slightly weak as is the general market. It will be a real test of the sector as there is little news to drive it higher […]
May 7th Biotech Update
Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same. They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]
May the Force Be With Biotech Update
The trend is you friend until it is not anymore. We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken. This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear. We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Do we get our turn around Tuesday? Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold. A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze. I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%. When the bounce happens it should be […]
August 16th Biotech Update
So far the week is ending on a positive note but it is early but not surprising that we see some sort of bounce in the market. I sort of wonder how the trading ends the day as it will send a stronger signal than how trading starts. We have seen a lot of macro […]
August 15 Biotech Update
While the macro has been major the past couple of days, the sector specific news has been pretty sparse. I was hoping something interesting would happen to write about but there really is nothing major. It does make it a little easier to trade in that we will be sucked up in the macro maelstrom […]
July 22 Biotech Update
It is generally a good start to the week for the sector with a slight outperformance of the broader markets but only marginally so (and it remains early). We are getting into earnigns season but this seems increasingly less important for large caps given the lack of growth. There is no new launch that is […]
June 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the morning for the sector, although it seems mostly in line with the broader markets. Given the performance the past couple days, however, I am happy to see it up with the broader markets, especially given that lack of any real news (although we are still potentially in the glow of […]
June 25 Biotech Update
So that was unexpected. First, the market is down and sector is higher. Second, we got another large merger to digest. Obviously I will focus on the deal and its implications. 1. I need to go back and listen the conference call so there might be some additional insight later this week but this deal […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day for the sector and we are right back to what could be some resistance on the XBI at $90. There was some good news coming out that sort of stoked the move and it will be interesting to see if we pause today or extend. Clearly we are pausing in […]
February 5 Biotech Update
There might be reason for optimism in the sector. The XBI seems to be breaking above its recent range and the $80 level might have been support for this new move. That would certainly be the best case scenario as it would be a higher low ($80) and one that is a little higher than […]
January 29 Biotech Update
An interesting start to large cap earnings. The sector was weak yesterday and this could be the long awaited pullback (or another head fake). Ideally, the pullback bottoms out in the $73-$75 range on the XBI to form a higher low. While a retest of the recent low around $64 is not impossible it would […]
December 11 Biotech Update
The market did a lot better to start the week than I would have thought and that strength continues today. At this point, I think everyone does not really trust the market (I fall in that camp) but does that mean then that the sellers on this pop get burned? Everyone expects the move higher […]
