The sector had been strong and that is nice to see. It was especially interesting to see the sector strength (and market for that matter) when the Fed is talking. Usually those are guaranteed red days. Perhaps the sector is becoming a little more immunized against Fed talk. Of course, just when you think the […]
December 22nd Biotech Update
The sector actually pulled out a good red to green day and seemed to pretty consistently outperform the broader markets. We start pretty much the same this morning and while it is possible that there is a rotation back into the sector that could lead to more outperformance, I am not ready to call it […]
May 12th Biotech Update
We had our breakout and run yesterday and while there is little follow through today, I suspect that we get a continuation. It appears that the breakout is happening but the confirmation still needs to occur. The final signal would be to test the old resistance level with a selloff and to rally off the […]
September 5 Biotech Update
The hurricane thankfully missed us, so back in the office. The sector had a rough day yesterday but it only took us to the area that should act as new support. A quick dip under 120 or so would not be bad but it has to be quick. Honestly, we have already tested the support […]
April 10 Biotech Update
I am rushed this morning but I wanted to put out a quick note. The market is still volatile with the Cohen search yesterday sending the market down and the potential relaxation of the trade war sending the markets higher. I want to highlight a third macro issue and that is Syria. It is a […]
January 19 Biotech Update
The M&A smoke in the sector is coming quick but it remains to be seen if this is just smoke or whether there is fire beneath. After a clearly disappointing 2017 and 2018 JPM, it is hard to imagine that there is not real fire given the needs of large bio and pharma to rebuild […]
January 12 Biotech Update
Assuming nothing crazy happens, the price action has been much better than I would have expected given the headline news. What we do not know if what management said to the buyside at the thousands of meetings that occurred around the conference but clearly there is more interest in the sector despite the lack of […]
December 26 Biotech Update
I hope that everyone is having a good holiday season. News has slowed to a crawl and I will start making the 2017 previews unless there is some breaking news. I will start with large caps and move down the capital structure. 1. My 2017 large cap biotech pick is CELG (surprise) but I am […]
AGIO- Pivot to PKD
Agios Pharmaceuticals came to market in 2013 as a promising cancer metabolism company. Three years later, it has pivoted to rare disease. AG-120, an IDH1 mutant inhibitor being developed for oncology indications, remains the most advanced pipeline compound, but is no longer the main value driver. For that we look to AG-348 and AG-519, mid […]
September 7 Biotech Update
It sort of feels like people are still on vacation. No volume. No price action. The sector is holding up in this environment and perhaps grinding higher but I am not reading much into the price action at all given the lack of any conviction. 1. The only real conviction move today is AGIO going […]
June 13
Without any real bullish news, the sector continues with its struggles. We have seen this story before and every other time it lead to a new low or a test of the previous low. Ideally, the sector would bounce before either of those but it is hard to have confidence in that given the relentless […]
We saw some more low volume drift and no real news to break through the summer doldrums, which seems to be in effect. I think this will probably be the rule for the rest of the summer with choppy, low volume trading as the rule punctuated but news filled days that drive the sector (or […]
May 19 Biotech Update
The sector did well the other day especially given the weakness in the broader markets. We have, however, seen this before and last time the sector grossly underperformed once the broader markets recovered. So while it is good to see the relative strength and hopefully it continues, it also needs to last more than a […]
May 18 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a precarious position, which is nothing new. ISI had a call yesterday with its technician and the overwhelming view on most of the stocks was that they are at a decision point- the short term chart does not look great but they are at long term support. He tended to lean […]
August 13 Biotech Update
We had our reversal yesterday that I talked about, although I had my doubts for a little while. That is probably enough to get some buying interest barring additional negative macro issues. China did a third round of devaluations but I suspect it will have less of an effect on the market given it is […]
July 24 Biotech Update
Unlike earlier this week where bad news was shrugged off, it looks like we are going to see selling on the bad news. This pullback should eventually generate nice bargains if it picks up steam but it might not be an immediate buy the dip as earning have been relatively mixed, so money may be […]
July 9 Biotech Update
It is a new day and apparently a new market with everything now OK. Clearly chop is the order of the summer (as is amnesia with the market having almost no memory day to day). As always it matters less how we start and more how we end but given the lack of any real […]
June 15 Biotech Update
It is a macro world and we are just living in it. Sunday night we should have known this was going to be a bad start to the week with the two themes being Greece and the biotech bubble. Both themes are pretty trite but they are both negative headline risks. Outside of the headline […]
June 12 Biotech Update
The market is not happy this morning and it is not immediately clear as to the “cause.” This is taking the sector down, especially some of the recent fliers. The summer is generally not a great time for the sector and we have had a lull in M&A, so it could be time for a […]
June 8 Biotech Update
The sector is quiet and macro seems neutral if not slightly negative but it is early. There is not a lot of news to discuss. I suspect that the trend is to sell biotechs early Monday morning when there is not a major buyout but once the fast money is out, we will get a […]
