This week seems to have started like last week. I think it was actually last Tuesday that the sector suddenly took a dive on no real news and yesterday was certainly not a good day. It remains to be seen if this weakness will continue as we are entering into earnings that could help the […]
Dave-Trading – April Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No positionPreview 2-3 […]
April 6 Biotech Update
The news is obviously the failed AGN and PFE deal, so I will focus on why the deal fell through and what it means for the companies and sector. I obviously underestimated both the desire and ability of treasury to kill this deal but it is now about dealing with the news and how to […]
February 4 Biotech Update
Today is going to be an interesting day. Yes, there is the drug pricing testimony in Congress and that is simply a show and grandstanding that has no impact on the actual chances of changing policy. It will be good theater (unless you are already tired of seeing the same stories recycled everyday) but in […]
February 3 Biotech Update
The market remains tied to oil and while sentiment remains negative on oil it still has not made a new low. This is not to say that a new low is not coming but as long as it does not make a lower low, it is at least some positive for the market. Ultimately, we […]
November 6 Biotech Update
Despite some additional M&A news the sector is off to a weak start. I suspect this eventually reverses today but would also take it as a strong signal if we remain weak or weaken further throughout the day. 1. It seems like only the day before the abstract release that I was talking about larger […]
November 2 Biotech Update
We finally get a merger Monday of sorts although only one of the deals is a public company. It will be telling to a certain extent how the SMIDs respond to the deals. I (and many others) thought that we need a pickup in M&A to spark additional interest in the space as well as […]
October 29 Biotech Update
As I noted before, it appears that the sector is improving and while I would not say it has turned, I would argue that the odds are better that the next large move will be higher rather than lower. This would especially be the case if we start to see M&A pick up. The potential […]
October 23 Biotech Update
Unfortunately, the discussion for the sector continues to revolve around specialty pharma. This has brought the sector down (although perhaps not down as far as we would have thought, so perhaps that is a positive) and generated significant underperformance to the broader market. At some point, the negative headlines for the sector will end and […]
October 12 Biotech Update
Another start to the week and another week without the M&A that many think is needed to move the sector higher. I worry a little about that argument as one would like to see the sector move higher off of fundamentals and not adding more and more takeover premiums into stocks. That being said I […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Just when it seemed like the market could have been getting its footing we have the weak jobs report and we are back to a macro driven sell off. I think down continues to be the near term trend until proven otherwise. I am looking at both the VIX and put/call ratios and think they […]
September 29 Biotech Update
I want to get out a quick note this morning as I am not sure I will have time for my usual Wednesday note and there has been some interesting news. The biggest issue remains the macro and the selloff in the sector. This is beyond weak hands and this is the liquidation of large […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector continues to get hit with the broader market. It feels like the sector is still facing the headwinds from the pricing discussions but as it fades into the background, the headwind will lift. Of course, it has to fade into the background and that remains an open question. My base case remains that […]
September 21 Biotech Update
Another slow news start to the week. The market background seems better but with a lack of real news/catalysts, the sector is likely we trade in line with market. It will be interesting to see how the sector trades with a lack of news as it may give us at least some sense as to […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The market has done well recently but it is all meaningless for the most part until we get the Fed decision. To be honest, I do not know whether to root for a hike or no-hike. I can come up with what I think are reasonable cases for why the market would rally on either […]
August 24 Biotech Update
Wow. What a start to the week. In terms of news there was not much but we had an incredible flash crash in the large caps at the open. From a technical perspective, I do not know if this signals an end or what but there were some great long term bargains that I missed […]
July 24 Biotech Update
Unlike earlier this week where bad news was shrugged off, it looks like we are going to see selling on the bad news. This pullback should eventually generate nice bargains if it picks up steam but it might not be an immediate buy the dip as earning have been relatively mixed, so money may be […]
June 18 Biotech Update
The summer is seasonally weak, especially after the EHA and ASCO- right? I am not sure of the exact catalyst for the move today but it is certainly moving the sector higher (with the broader market as well). There was not a lot of news, so perhaps this is simply the end of the buyer […]
May 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday did not get any better and this is certainly not the start to the ASCO run up that the sector would want. That being said there was so little news yesterday, it is not completely surprising that the sector could not break free from the macro worries (Greece and dollar seemed to be the […]
May 11 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week which is interesting as we have little news and a lack of M&A. I was curious as to how the sector would respond if we did not have any more M&A announced this Monday and the answer is pretty good. I think that is a bullish signal […]
