More of the same. The sector seems to be content to drift on low volume, which is pretty consistent with the broader market and the lack of fundamental news. Odds are this is the calm before the storm with the most likely set of news coming from earnings but even that should not be completely […]
September 15 Biotech Update
It still looks to me that the sector is acting less like a sector and more like an aggregation of individual stocks. That is always true (it is not a stock market but a market of stocks) but usually there is a rising (or lowering) tide that raises (or lowers) all boats effect. I find […]
July 7 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be consolidating its previous move although the broader market does not necessarily look that strong. That being said the trend for the sector is higher and outperformance at least in the recent past. I still expect it to test the breakout level at which point everyone will be expecting the levels […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
May 30 Biotech Update
It is ASCO week and the end of a long Memorial Day weekend and there is no news. Usually heading into long weekends there is the expectation/hope that a deal can be finished. Unsurprisingly there are no deals but perhaps a little surprising last week ended with no real excitement or talk of a deal. […]
April 17 Biotech Update
Another long weekend and another lack of M&A. I do not know when this will start to weigh on the sector or the reason behind the lack of M&A but it will matter at some point. Perhaps it is valuation, perhaps it is waiting on tax reform but at some point companies need pipeline as […]
February 10 Biotech Update
So I think we need to be prepared for some more backlash and bad press given the decision by Marathon to think it is business as usual. So far the backlash has been isolated but it is difficult to see this not become a political talking point. 1. Marathon licensed an old, generic steroid (DFZ) […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be quieting down a little and perhaps a little bit of consolidation of the recent move is in the cards. All in all, however, it seems like a productive week for the sector and confirms my base case that the likely path moving forward is higher (with the obvious pullbacks sprinkle […]
July 29 Biotech Update
The news is slowing down a little this week but the earnings continue for the large caps. So far as a group the earnings look good indicating solid fundamentals with the companies. The stocks have been reacting well and the sector has been moving higher and outperforming. This move higher raises the bar for the […]
July 14 Biotech Update
The market continues to ramp higher but about halfway through yesterday the bottom fell out of the biotech sector and it has been struggling ever since despite the strength in the broader markets. It is not immediately clear what was the cause (seems temporally to correlate with Andrew Left noting that he is short VRX […]
June 14 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle but for some reason we seem to be getting a bounce today despite a set of fairly negative news. It obviously remains to be seen if this bounce can have any sort of staying power but it is certainly not driven by positive news. 1. I want to actually take […]
June 6 Biotech Update
It’s the Monday after ASCO started and it is time to declare the winners and losers. Even when we have definitive data this is often a less than precise undertaking and this is especially the case this year when the data are early and incremental. So I will spend today talking about why the consensus […]
June 3 Biotech Update
Not much in terms of news to end the week as we head into ASCO. The jobs report may make this a macro day sell off (although if you dig into the jobs report the big miss seems to be driven entirely by the Verizon strike, so when that ends this should completely reverse). In […]
June 2 Biotech Update
I missed a day but not much happened. The sector continues to do well and it seems to be slowly turning sentiment around. The one negative (or perhaps positive) is that the ISI traders noted that there is still not buying demand and the move seems to be driven by a lack of sellers and […]
May 27 Biotech Update
Yesterday was not a great day but after the run having a treading water sort of trading is not the worst outcome. At the worst, we were trading in line with the market and the key will be what we do after the recent move has been digested. The trend has been higher, so the […]
May 18 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a precarious position, which is nothing new. ISI had a call yesterday with its technician and the overwhelming view on most of the stocks was that they are at a decision point- the short term chart does not look great but they are at long term support. He tended to lean […]
Dave-Trading – May edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
May 11 Biotech Update
Yesterday the sector was a little weak but that is neither surprising nor a killer given the strength we saw Monday. That being said we cannot see continued under-performance and have a positive view in the near term. I am starting to think of the performance of the sector as less strong or weak and […]
May the 4th Be With You Biotech Update
It has certainly not been a good start to the week for the sector or really the market, although it seems like the sector is underperforming. As frustrating as it is after all of the under-performance, we cannot miss the forest for the trees and note that we are still not close to the recent […]
April 28 Biotech Update
We have a little bit of news this morning. There is no way I can cover it all especially having a bunch of conference calls to listen to as well. I will focus on the big picture and dig down into a couple of the events. 1. We have been waiting for M&A and it […]
