It’s beginning to look a lot (not Christmas) but a breakout. Ideally, we will be able to extend this move for a couple of days and then pullback to the previous upper end of the range, where it will act as new support. That would be a clear breakout confirmation and I think it is […]
Halloween Biotech Update
Happy Halloween and it is a little scary out there right now, although only a little. We still are in the middle of the range and with the election coming next week, I am not convinced we get a significant move before that clarity (although I also doubt we get full clarity after the election). […]
September 30th Biotech Update
We are at a place where we should bounce and we did get a nice little rally to start the morning (after starting lower). Ideally that should be built upon today and later in the week. The goal would obviously be to put in a higher low and then use that move to a higher […]
April 22nd Biotech Update
A fun fact, the 13% decline in the XBI was the 12th worst 30 performance in the 18 year history of the index. I guess that is not really a “fun” fact but it highlights just how difficult the past month has been. It is very difficult to be trader or investor in the sector […]
April 19th Biotech Update
Well, I wish something would change but we are back in the rut that was most of later year. To be fair, we did eventually break out of that rut but I will continue to be a repeating record. We need rates to break lower. I think things are getting stretched to the downside (in […]
December 26th Biotech Update
We are ending the year with a bang. It looks like a lot of companies are wanting to get ahead of the JPM news cycle and are announcing deals pretty early. I do wonder now what this means for the JPM hype cycle as it we now have had a good number of larger bolt […]
December 11th Biotech Update
The sector has had a great run. Positive news and increasing confidence that rates have topped were a nice combination. I do think there is likely going to be a short-term pause to the move higher as the sector looks a bit overbought. I would not be stunned to see a pullback to the $73-$75 […]
December 1st Biotech Update
We the news that we needed to really push the sector higher with a large oncology deal. Now the move is good to see and certainly adds some nice momentum to the sector but ideally we would want that to last a couple of days. One day spike higher and then giving it back over […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Not exactly the day that we wanted to build confidence. We had a chance but it sort of looks more like a range bound bottoming process is more likely than a clear move into an uptrend. Of course, we still have the potential to break lower but I still think a range is more likely […]
June 16th Biotech Update
We are still close and trying. We did not make a run to the upper level and pull back to the $90 but did make a little move lower to the $88 level. It looks like it is support at this point and it reset the chart, which might have setup a move above $90. […]
May 23rd Biotech Update
A nice little rally yesterday and hopefully we can continue that momentum. Obviously the ideal scenario is that the sector can break out and go to a higher high after having set a higher low. To be fair, we have been in this situation before and even had a mini upward trend established only to […]
April 28th Biotech Update
It is more than a little disheartening to see a strong rally that leaves out the sector. If one wants to try and look at the bright side it saved us from breaking down and we seem to be bouncing off of a support level. Of course, it looks pretty meaningless if we cannot rally […]
April 27th Biotech Update
Are we breaking down? It has certainly not been a good couple of days but even though we are under the $80 level on the XBI, it looks like we are still at the bottom of a range. This is certainly a precarious position and not one where I think we want to linger. There […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
The sector has done pretty well this week considering the broader market and the concerns over the Fed. I still think we should remember not to fight the Fed but the fundamentals for the sector in terms of the earnings have been generally positive. There were some outliers like ABBV but for the most part […]
October 31st Biotech Update
A slow start to the week. It is not a bad start but a little weakness after a nice little run last week is a little disappointing. That being said we ran right up to the upper end of the range that seems to have developed and so it is not crazy that we struggle […]
August 1st Biotech Update
We have some more earnings this week but the lack of exciting launches to track make them a little less exciting. Of course, there could be some unexpected misses (see below) but I generally expect earnings to be more or less in than with expectations. The sector has been essentially rangebound the entire month […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
