Is this a week of consolidation or the new high to be followed by a lower low? We have broken the clear trend lower that had been operating for the past 6 months but only marginally so. One could look at the chart and still see a basic downtrend as we made our way to […]
November 7th Biotech Update
It was not the best of Mondays but given the strength of last week, we were bound for a pullback. That being said, we are at a precarious point in that we hit resistance and pulled back. So in some ways this looks quite natural to pullback at this area but it also does leave […]
November 6th Biotech Update
Well, that was quite the week and end to the week. Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week? The economy was weaker than expected. We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
The bounce continues but it still is not good enough to break the downtrend. This certainly feels good to be rallying but my base case remains that the trend continues until broken. The trend is down and while I intuitively think we are close to a bottom, I still think we need to be exceptionally […]
November 1st Biotech Update
The best sign for the overall market was the reversal on a day in which the SMID space could have been hammered by the SRPT news. The sector started lower but then recovered to end solidly green. That is a strong signal as to the overall health of the sector. That is not to say […]
October 31st Spooky Biotech Update
We had a nice start to the week and I thought we would have enough momentum to keep it going but the SRPT news might throw some cold water on the rally. Or it might be seen a specific enough to SRPT to not stop too much. This is actually a good signal as to […]
October 30th Biotech Update
It was not a great end to last week and it looks like we are going to be getting to that $62 level sooner rather than later. I still sort of worry that we have not had a panic move but perhaps we are setting ourselves up that move this week. In any case, $62 […]
October 27th Biotech Update
It has been a mixed week. I could certainly have seen it play out better but I have certainly seen worse. As they say bottoming is a process and as long as we have not broken to lower lows, we could be in that process. Of course, resetting oversold conditions for another leg lower is […]
October 25th Biotech Update
A bounce feels good but as had been the case it really means nothing unless we can break above the lower high (which in this case is around $72). Every one of these bounces has the chance to do so but as you know my mantra has been that we are likely to see $62 […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
October 19th Biotech Update
And just like that the potential relief rally is over. We are breaking new lows and the little rally looks like another lower high. I had at least one day of potential hope for the sector but my long-standing view that we are heading to the $62 area seems unfortunately accurate. Of course, there is […]
October 18th Biotech Update
I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
October 11th Biotech Update
It should surprise no one but we remain linked to interest rates and while the Fed is not raising short term rates, long term rates continue to rise. As long as it appears that the Fed cycle and long term rate moves higher are not ending, then the sector is going to struggle. Given the […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Not an awful start to the week all things considered. I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level. In order to have any confidence […]
October 9th Biotech Update
We had a decent end to the week in that we rallied a little but I still think as long as we stay under $75 it is nothing more than a rally that resets the oversold conditions. With a new war in the Middle East and one that has uncertainty as to the potential to […]
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I am introducing a new series of reports that take a data analytic look at the sector. These use data I collected and coded about various aspects of the sector. If you would like additional information about these data or additional data analysis that can be performed, please contact me at (dsobek@sobekanalytics.com). We know that […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Are we getting to a near term bottom in the sector? Perhaps, the selling is getting to pretty extreme levels and we did not end yesterday on the lows. We did not really do a massive reversal either, but I do not think we have a near-term chance of getting to the multi-year lows of […]
October 3rd Biotech Update
The sector really deserves a no comment comment as it disappoints yet again. To be fair, it is not just the sector but the broader market is not great and now there is talk of one more rate hike before we are done. There are many ways to account for the weakness but I do […]
October 2nd Biotech Update
Not a great end to the week but we are finally done with September. Everyone seemed to think that September was going to be a seasonally weak month (it certainly was true) and that we have the potential for a stronger end to the year. Of course, how much is that strength going to matter […]
