There is nothing going on in the sector. No real news. No new deals. You would have thought that September would bring about some news but it seems like we are stuck in the summer pattern. It looks like that breakout failed its test and the next key to watch is what happens at 120 […]
September 5 Biotech Update
The hurricane thankfully missed us, so back in the office. The sector had a rough day yesterday but it only took us to the area that should act as new support. A quick dip under 120 or so would not be bad but it has to be quick. Honestly, we have already tested the support […]
September 4 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week. Sometimes there are expectations for deals after long weekends but the sector continues to disappoint in terms of M&A. Given how important M&A was to many sector theses at the start of the year (and that includes me), it is impressive to see the performance. Explaining the performance is […]
August 30th Biotech Update
The range finally seems broken and pretty decisively to the upside. The sector is not just moving higher but it is outperforming the broader market on a relative basis. Given the strength of the move and the overbought conditions across the market, I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the near term. […]
XENE – Quick note, Positive TMS Data Presented at The European Congress on Epileptology
Today morning, Xenon Pharmaceutical (XENE) reported positive data from its XEN1101 Phase 1b transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) study. (LINK) XEN1101 Demonstrates Statistically Significant Reduction in Corticospinal and Cortical Excitability as Measured by TMS-EMG and TMS-EEG XEN1101 Demonstrates Greater Effect on TMS-EMG Resting Motor Threshold at Significantly Lower Dose When Compared to Historical Ezogabine Data XEN1101 […]
August 28th Biotech Update
We got off to a good start yesterday and there is perhaps some early follow through this morning but not much. We are inching closer to the upper end of the range and but are still within it. It remains a range bound market until proven otherwise, although we are also getting to the end […]
August 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the week both in having news to talk about and the price action. While it is easy to get excited about good price action, we remain in the range. Just as many felt that the sector would break down when we were at the low end, it is easy to get […]
August 24th biotech update
The snoozer of a week continues with the sector still chopping in its range. Perhaps next week we wake up a little but odds are we are stuck in this pattern until the fall conference season begins in September. 1. We will have some news this weekend with the PFE tafamidis data and while odds […]
August 22nd Biotech Update
Still not a ton of news and the sector moved higher with the market taking it a little further from the edge but still well within its range. I am still watching to see how the relatively performance in the sector plays out in that will we see large pharma continue to outperform followed by […]
Dave Trading – August 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
August 20 Biotech Update
I understand that it is still the summer but this is an absolutely no news start to the week. We remain in a choppy market until proven otherwise and this lack of news makes it difficult to discern anything under the surface. Ideally, you would want to see how stocks react to news but we […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Up, down, up, down, and repeat. Yesterday was green so today is most likely to be red. While it is difficult to discern a trend in such a low volume, choppy market, it does appear that the reds days are a little more severe and consistent than the green. It sort of makes one wonder […]
August 16th Biotech Update
The sector was pretty weak yesterday but remained in its range. While there is nothing to dissuade me from the summer chop, there are some warning signs. First, we are close to breaking through the support on both the XBI and IBB. Second, the early morning bounce was quickly sold. Obviously it remains early but […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A pretty weak open for the sector but again this is nothing more than low volume chop as I see it. Unless it breaks below 113 on the IBB and then retests that as resistance or above 120 and then retests that as support, I will continue to argue that the sector is directionless. Of […]
Bellus – David vs. Goliath Can BLU Deliver A Better Chronic Cough Drug Than Merck?
BELLUS Health (BLU.TO) (BLUSF) is a biopharmaceutical development company based in Quebec, Canada, its pipeline includes several partnered clinical-stage drug development programs, but the company’s lead drug candidate is BLU-5937 which is a highly selective P2X3 antagonist for chronic cough and has the potential to be a best-in-class therapeutic for chronic cough patients who do […]
August 13 Biotech Update
The chop continues and I suspect this week will be no different. There is not any news to start the week that would excite or disappoint, which means the previous trend (of no trend) is the path of least resistance. It is interesting that no one even talks about M&A anymore as that was supposed […]
August 10th Biotech Update
While yesterday ended up being quite positive for the sector (in general), I am still not going to read too much into it and would not be surprised to see those gains disappear in the next couple days. My view remains a low volume chop to the sector until we get out of the summer […]
August 9th Biotech Update
The chop continues. I just do not see anything definitive in either direction and am coming around to the belief that we are not going to see anything definitive soon. I suspect we bounce between 113 and 120 on the IBB for a bit and then come the fall we see a break with volume […]
XENE – Quick note, Q2 Earnings and Epilepsy Long Term Value Creation
Follow up to my previous report “XENE – Epilepsy and Advocacy Under the New FDA” (Link) XENE released their Q2 earning report and hosted a conference call and webcast to discuss the 2Q 2018 financial results and provide corporate update. Xenon pharmaceutical (XENE) story keep evolving, with plenty of cash runway through at least mid-2020, as of […]
August 8th Biotech Update
We are not quite getting the clarity to the upside but there is nothing to indicate that the sector is about to break to the downside. It seems like the path of least resistance is going to be chop perhaps until more investors get back from their summer vacations. The fall tends to see more […]
