And today we are green with the rest of the market. There is some biotech news but at this point the sector is trading simply as a slightly higher beta version of the general market (it is a little more red on down days and a little more green on up days). On the positive […]
May 20 Biotech Update
China and trade seemed to be fading into the background potentially setting this week up for a decline of the highly correlated macro markets but Iran and the Middle East have stepped into the void. While this could be a major issue for the markets, it is also one that could fade a lot quicker […]
May 17th Biotech Update
We remain in a macro driven market even as the ASCO abstracts dropped this week. There were some interesting data that came out of the abstracts but certainly nothing so compelling to move the sector especially against this macro backdrop. At some point, the China trade wars issue will be priced into the market and […]
May 15th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday ending up being a good day with the XBI eventually following the individual stocks but this continues to be a highly correlated macro market. The broader market seems to be following a clearly defined downward channel (which it hit the upper limit yesterday) and given that the broad market is driving everything until […]
May 14 Biotech Update
I am not sure who had a more difficult day yesterday. You all for having to watch another market meltdown over China fears (and others) or me who had to help chaperone a middle school trip to New Orleans. In any case, we have all survived and the market seems to be bouncing this morning. […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Macro seems to once again dominate the trading with both Iran and China increasing the risk and both North Korea and Venezuela just below the surface. The odds remain that we muddle through these crises but one cannot ignore the risks that these present especially because the Iran and China situations could potentially be very […]
May 7th Biotech Update
A good day for the sector despite a relatively bad day for the market. This is a rare occurrence for the sector to outperform (at least recently). One day does not make a trend but it was certainly encouraging to see the sector do well and if the market continues to slide it is unlikely […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market with the surprise tariff news hitting the market. I would not be stunned for the effect to be muted given how frequently Chine trade news changes. For all we know progress will be made this afternoon and all will be good again. As such, my […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
May 1 Biotech Update
The sector continues to lag. What I see as a little odd is that pharma appears to be outperforming biotech. If Medicare for All was going to collapse the US drug market, why would pharma be immune and be doing well? It is an odd disconnect and speaks to something else going on in the […]
April 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a rut. The market is doing well with the bio-pharma the clear laggard. While the mania over the medicare for all worry seems to have abated, the sector clearly did not bounce back. It stopped the free fall but we are still well below the pre-mania levels. So what can we […]
April 25th Biotech Update
Yesterday really ended up offering no real direction. We could not quite rally but we also did not quite collapse. Everything that I talked about yesterday about the trading of the sector also applies today given the lack of clarity. I do think it is telling that these large cap earnings are basically being greeted […]
April 24th Biotech Update
Yesterday was good but not a good start to today. We were certainly due for a bounce and we should be looking for signs as to the next move. The upward trend has been broken but we have yet to clearly establish what the trend will be (higher or lower) or whether we will be […]
April 23 Biotech Update
The sector has been struggling to say the least and when last I wrote, it was not clear to me the underlying cause, it is clear now (I will discuss below). We are obviously oversold in the short term and while we should bounce and recover as there is little fundamentally wrong with the sector, […]
April 17 Biotech Update
The trend in the sector is moving onto more and more shaky ground. Breaking below $86.22 on the XBI (the most recent low) would end the streak of higher highs and higher lows. We still have some room but even at these levels (if we reverse) it looks like the trend is not quite as […]
April 16 Biotech Update
It was not the ideal start to the week but also not the worst. The selling from the morning opening was bad but we may have bottomed in the afternoon as there was a minor late day run. I would use yesterday’s intraday low as a key level and would get less constructive on the […]
April 15 Biotech Update
Certainly an interesting start to the week. In terms of the broader sector, I suspect that we have a positive week as we are in the area where a bounce would be expected with the current trend. If we continue to have underperformance and a negative week, then we need to start thinking more about […]
April 12 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly underperforming the broader markets and while that is frustrating, I do not see anything that is concerning. We did not get the breakout but if we bottom around $90, then we have set up another higher low. For me to really change my view, I would need to see the XBI […]
April 11th Biotech Update
We are starting to get some news (from EASL) but still nothing that appears compelling for the sector. Sure, these are going to be potentially stock moving but it appears unlikely to have a broader read through to the sector. 1. VKTX presented update data and the new information was really about safety. The drug […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Another slow day with the sector so far unable to do anything other than drift lower. I still see nothing to indicate a broader issue with the sector and this is simply a no news drift than anything else. We would really need to break below $86 on the XBI to change the picture at […]
