It should be a busy week with some earnings and the Fed meeting. Of course there is nothing to start the week so we are back to the negative bias in the sector, which is not surprising. I still think the path of least resistance at this point is lower but with the potential of […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
July 22nd Biotech Update
I am back and it is going to take a little bit of time for me to catch up and get a sense of what the sector has been doing. It seems like I took vacation at the right time as I did not have to see the downtrend that appears to have developed. When […]
July 9th Biotech Update
I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential. Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]
July 7th Biotech Update
The broader market did not help yesterday but we certainly did not ruin the potential uptrend but we did nothing to confirm it either. I think another decent sized down day today would be a problem but we have almost been straight down the past week so a snap back rally would not be a […]
July 6th Biotech Update
Hey, guess what? A long weekend and still no deals. We should not be surprised at this point but it remains disappointing. I believe that most of us are at the acceptance level of the situation and no longer think that M&A is going to happen but it is not a situation that is sustainable. […]
July 1st Biotech Update
So one could look at the trading this week and be discouraged. I look at it (so far) and see a bad week but one that does not actually point to an imminent break to the downside. This is not to say that everything is sunshine but the intraday low yesterday looks like it could […]
June 28th Biotech Update
I was thinking we might have had a little more momentum this morning with the data this past weekend but it is pretty muted so far. Perhaps the lack of M&A was disappointing or perhaps there is not a broader read-through from the data or perhaps the momentum is going to build throughout the day. […]
June 25th Biotech Update
The sector might be getting some momentum and working its way to the $142 level in the near term. I think we need to at least get to that level (which I think is likely) and ideally make a move above it (possible). I think if you stare closely enough at the chart you could […]
June 24th Biotech Update
The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why. There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction. Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]
June 23rd Biotech Update
Listless. That might not be the right word but that is how the sector feels. On a given day it does not feel that way as the daily moves seem like there is some conviction behind them but the daily moves do not seem connected and do not seem to follow through from one day […]
June 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
We has some M&A to start the week but not in the sector. Deals have been happening to a certain extent but they have been partnerships and not M&A. Is that the wave of the future? Buying private companies and partnerships when it is public. That has been the pattern so far this year and […]
June 19th Biotech Update
I think the sector is setting up well if we can break above the $138 level in the near term. Yes, we had a couple days of weakness earlier this week but the recent strength (modest as it has been) is setting up that weakness as a potential higher low. This become more likely if […]
June 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot going on in the sector, which makes it a little tough to write about but it does provide a way to figure out the underlying sentiment. Of course, it seems like the underlying sentiment is basically flat. Not much movement one way or the other so we are in a low volume […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Not a lot going on in the sector today. We had that pullback yesterday and it puts us in an odd space. There is not a really clear place to bounce with the $131.5 or so level perhaps a point. We need to find some point above the recent lows to bounce and move to […]
June 15th Biotech Update
It looked like we could have gotten some momentum but it was not quite able to continue. It was not stock specific but pretty broad based. It is not as if it was a particularly bad day but that momentum that was building that I thought could get us to the $140-1 level on the […]
June 14th Biotech Update
Well, we do not have any buyouts but there is some partnership news. I am not sure that will be enough to juice the sector but it is likely enough to continue the momentum to the $140/$141 level in the XBI. Assuming we make it there, there should be some sort of pause/pullback to reset […]
June 10th Biotech Update
I think we are set to make that push to the $140-$141 level on the XBI. We got some nice momentum and if we get to that level the sector would probably be stretched to the upside and I can see a pause/pullback. This is not bad as it creates the opportunity for a pullback […]
June 9th Biotech Update
We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
June 8th Biotech Update
So I sort of missed a lot but not really. Obviously I was driving as the biggest binary in recent memory dropped but ASCO was pretty uneventful and the sector is basically still in the same range as when I left. I would hope that the BIIB news will at least get the sector to […]
