It seems to me that the sector is settling into a lull with the markets as we get to Christmas and then New Years. We managed to get out a small rally yesterday and have the chance to do it again today as we start red. While I would like to see more momentum to […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
December 20th Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows. I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]
December 16th Biotech Update
Is it really as simple as interest rates? All of the thinking through the sector and fundamental analysis and the sector rallied hard on a somewhat more dovish (or less aggressive) Fed. It looks like the trading yesterday also sets up the potential for a double bottom assuming that we can continue this rally and […]
December 15th Biotech Update
It really seems like we are at the point of the bear market that nothing really matters. Typically we talk about M&A or data or launches as being catalysts that could bring interest back into the sector. Nothing seems to work at this point. There is no big push for drug price reform. We have […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
December 10th Biotech Update
We did not get the three days of momentum, which is disappointing. I understand we had two good days and perhaps in the immediate term we were overbought but one the way down it was relentless and so it is not crazy to think that if we are reversing there could be a long streak […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We had a day that built some momentum and we barely eked out a higher intraday high but we need more and we need to get to that $120-$121 range. Given how much we have sold off and the relative underperformance that should be pretty easy to reach in a bounce back rally. Assuming we […]
December 8th Biotech Update
We finally had our bounce start but yesterday has to be the start. If we end up giving it back today that is not a good sign. Starting the morning red is OK but we need to close green and build on the momentum that was started yesterday. There is no reason that the bounce […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So we did not have a bad day yesterday, although that only really is true if you look at the absolute performance and not the relative performance. That being said it was still better than what we have seen recently. We are set for a green start to the day and have some positive news […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
December 3 Biotech Update
The sector remains the most painful of all sectors. We got a little rally yesterday only to be crushed this morning. This sort of trading is very frustrating especially because the sector is so oversold that there should be some dead cat bounce rally coming at the very least. One can see the move today […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector is good at one thing and that is creating despair and frustration. The selloff has just been relentless and this is very much sentiment related. You can have relentless selling when fundamentals change, i.e. the energy sector at the start of the pandemic when the economy was shut down. There is nothing happening […]
December 1st Biotech Update
It is hard to be optimistic with the sector. We are well overdue for a bounce and if we assume that we are in a bear market these rallies can be significant. I have been looking at the sector as being in a large range and now that has been clearly broken. Is there a […]
November 29th Biotech Update
I think we are likely going to look back at Friday and see it as an Omicron overreaction given that it is still unclear if this mutation is more dangerous than delta or can outcompete delta as the dominant strain. In addition, all the oral treatments that are on the way will still work against […]
November 24th Biotech Update
There is little doubt now that the sector has to rally. It does not matter if the broader markets are weak or whatever, we have broken (at least temporally) the low end of the range. We closed above it yesterday and ended green but there is not a lot of room lower and to have […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
The sector looks absolutely sick at this point but we are now down 12 of the last 13 days and are at the bottom end of the range. That is screaming reversal in that the sector is clearly oversold and is at a level that has been consistent support. It is possible that we become […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Guess what? We are stuck in a range and no one cares really about anything that happens in the sector. I grant that the news coming out of the sector this year has been pretty bad. The regulatory setbacks and clinical setbacks have been pretty non-stop. Add in the lack of a compelling drug launch […]
Nov 18th Biotech Update
Today should be a good day. We were near the bottom end of the range where support should exist and the sector was oversold. As such, we were probably likely to bounce and today we got some M&A. While the deal was itself not a massive deal the timing works out for the sector to […]
November 17th Biotech Update
The sector is doing what it does. It is remaining in the range and aggravating investors with it continued under performance. This should be a seasonally strong period but we remain stuck in the range. Perhaps investors still have some lingering concerns about drug pricing reforms and the details that are being worked out. Or […]
