February 2nd Biotech Update

The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal.  Also even if the sector has changed […]

January 31st Biotech Update

I may have bottomed the sector.  I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before.  There as […]

January 28th Biotech Update

So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week.  We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week.  I am […]

January 27th Biotech Update

Yesterday had all the setup to signal a turning of the tide for the sector but it fell apart.  Of course, the Fed was the cause and the sector does not like increasing costs of capital.  There was nothing really that new in the Fed news but it seems like the reminder that rates will […]

January 24th Biotech Update

Well, we have seen this show way too many times.  The sector is absolutely bidless and while there does not seem to be panic per se there is an absolute indifference to the selling.  To me it just looks like no interest whatsoever to buy the sector and no one remains in size that can […]

January 20th Biotech Update

Not much new is going on at this point.  The sector does not look good and one should think there is more downside but it is already stretched to the downside.  The selling just seems relentless so far and at some point one has to ask where the marginal sellers are coming from.  The generalists […]

January 19th Biotech Update

Do you have whiplash yet?  Yesterday was and I fully expected a bloodbath to open the market today and I was thinking that could setup a nice tradable low (the old gap lower to really push an extremely oversold market to ludicrously oversold) but opening a little higher today makes it less clear. I am […]

January 18th Biotech Update

So it looked really bad last Friday and it was quite the comeback rally.  Unfortunately it seems like the broader market is not looking very good and I cannot imagine a scenario with a broader market/risk off move and the sector somehow moves higher.  I guess one can never say never but it seems exceptionally […]

January 14th Biotech Update

It is not going well for the sector.  There just seem to be no buyers at any levels.  I am not sure what will bring the buyers back.  Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN.  I have a hard time thinking through big risks.  Drug […]

January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update

The sector cannot help itself and stress investors.  We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside.  My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise).  Given the lack of really positive news or […]

January 12th Biotech Update

I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped.  There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming.  Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]

January 11th Biotech Update

I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday.  The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows.  The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging.  Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]

January 10th Biotech Update

Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022.  While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference.  I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]

January 7th Biotech Update

We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today.  If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week.  Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]

January 6th Biotech Update

The sector is not having a good start to the year.  I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM.  It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]

January 5th Biotech Update

Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year.  To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector.  Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]

January 4th Biotech Update

Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]

January 3rd Biotech Update

2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021.  JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data.  Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]