It is more than a little disheartening to see a strong rally that leaves out the sector. If one wants to try and look at the bright side it saved us from breaking down and we seem to be bouncing off of a support level. Of course, it looks pretty meaningless if we cannot rally […]
April 27th Biotech Update
Are we breaking down? It has certainly not been a good couple of days but even though we are under the $80 level on the XBI, it looks like we are still at the bottom of a range. This is certainly a precarious position and not one where I think we want to linger. There […]
April 25th Biotech Update
A slow start to earnings with nothing really pushing the sector. I think as we move through the large cap section of the earnings the questions will revolve around M&A as it is hard to see a large cap that does not need some additional filling out of the pipeline with some more than others. […]
April 24th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week after a couple of bust Mondays with deals. We are getting into earnings seasons and so it is not surprising that we slow as companies get ready to report. I do not think there is anything that will be very compelling or thesis changing in earning and I suspect […]
April 20th Biotech Update
This week has been pretty tame in the sense that we have not really built on the move higher but have not broken below that $80 level that I think is key to hold. I think we are all a little impatient with the sector given its recent performance but grinding right above the $80 […]
April 18th Biotech Update
Would you believe it if I said another day and another buyout with a large premium? I think the lack of M&A had been blamed for some of the previous years of underperforming for the sector and I believe that was a fair point. That is certainly not the case this year. While the sector […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
April 14th Biotech Update
A sleepy week sort of flipped in one day with both drama and action. We have pushed right up to the $80 level in the XBI which could act as some resistance but it will be interesting to see if the strength of yesterday can push through. From the bullish perspective, the ideal scenario would […]
April 12th Biotech Update
Well, it does look like we are still in this mini range. The market could be in rally mode today with the CPI coming in cooler than expected. While I am not convinced that the CPI looks that much cooler than expected (0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations), it seems to be enough for some significant […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Treading water? While it might not seem like it, the sector could be bouncing around support levels and perhaps even setting up a new range between $75 and $78. If that looks like a pretty tight range to you, I think you are right and the upper end might be closer to $80 and the […]
April 4th Biotech Update
Not a ton of news so far this week and so it seems like the sector is trading on sentiment and technical. I think we have more or less made a round trip to where we started the week. I still think there is room to eventually move to the moving averages but it does […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
A nice little continuation and it is nice to see the XBI above $75 but there is a lot of work to do. To put it in perspective, the 50 day MA is $82.43 and the 200 day MA is $82.22. On the positive, even after the nice little run the RSI is still under […]
March 31st Biotech Update
Yesterday was a disappointment in many ways. To see the sector underperform yet again was frustrating. As frustrating as it was it does not take the move to $78 off the table and it’s good that we are rebounding today. I still think that a move to the $78 area is most likely in the […]
March 30th Biotech Update
We have so far avoiding the worst case scenario by having a nice little rally this week. The next big test is going to be whether or not we can get above $78. That looks like some significant resistance and a place where a lower high can be established that would start to paint a […]
March 29th Biotech Update
I sort of expected a stronger start to the week but perhaps there was more caution than relief buying. We might now be building some momentum assuming investors become less concerned about a pending banking collapse. In other words, rather than the early week strong relief rally, we simply needed a couple days of calm […]
March 27th Biotech Update
Last week ended on a good note that has so far continued. We need a lot more than a couple day bounce to persuade anyone that the tide has changed but it is a start. We re probably starting a rally to the $78 area on the XBI but that really is likely the next […]
March 23rd Biotech Update
Are we heading to $60 on the XBI or not? We sort of broke below the last bit of support yesterday that seemed to clear the way for another 20% or so decline. It could also have been a head fake that then leads to a reversal. I would not look too positively on the […]
March 22 Biotech Update
I believe today is Fed day and my expectation is that there is a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike and 33% chance of a pause (and 1% of some other action). I think regardless of the action the tone will certainly shift more dovish or at least more cautious given the recent […]
March 21st Biotech Update
The markets are holding in there, which is probably not awful at this point. While most probably expected larger moves, a slow grind at these levels and a steady move higher is probably a healthier sign for the future of the market. Of course, the banking crisis moves fast and events could once again spiral […]
March 20th Biotech Update
An interesting weekend that leads to a basically flat opening? I do not know anyone who would have placed bets on a relatively flat opening given that the global banking crisis seems to have accelerated with CS being bought by UBS. If this was the culmination of the banking crisis, then you would have expected […]
