We got the bounce that I was sort of expecting and I would not be surprised if it continued. We are right at pretty strong support (or what I thought should have been pretty strong support). My base case is that we should expect this bounce to continue but I am still not 100% sure […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Well, I was worried about false breakouts and the RFK nomination and both unfortunately came to fruition. We are at a point where support should start to limit the losses. I would actually be a little surprised if we do not get some kind of bounce from the these levels given how far and quickly […]
November 15th Biotech Update
Well, this is why I thought that there was not a clear election outcome that would be all bullish for the sector. The nomination of RFK to head HHS sent the sector down and regardless of what one think about the nomination, it increases uncertainty. He has talked about removing vaccine approvals, blocking others, and […]
November 14th Biotech Update
Are we having a false breakout? Maybe but I would not think that is the base case assumption. Breakouts can be choppy and we still likely have a uncertainty in politics (even though that has come down a lot). Until we get closer to the lower end of the range I would not start talking […]
Veterans Day Biotech Update
It’s beginning to look a lot (not Christmas) but a breakout. Ideally, we will be able to extend this move for a couple of days and then pullback to the previous upper end of the range, where it will act as new support. That would be a clear breakout confirmation and I think it is […]
November 8th Biotech Update
Hopefully we are on the verge of breaking out and it would be a nice end to the week to see a clear move higher above the range. I still think we really need to see more M&A to really create a clean breakout but I think the expectations seems to be that that is […]
November 7th Biotech Update
We got a clear result from the election and it seems clear (at least initially) that the market approves. I would not say that there is a clear breakout for the sector but we are at the area where one can start thinking that it is breaking out. I still think RFK could be an […]
November 4th Biotech Update
I do not expect any major changes until at least Wednesday. That assumes that we have some sort of election clarity (hopefully). Even then I am not sure what is best for the sector. I would usually assume that a Republican win would be better but some are naturally getting nervous about RFK role in […]
Halloween Biotech Update
Happy Halloween and it is a little scary out there right now, although only a little. We still are in the middle of the range and with the election coming next week, I am not convinced we get a significant move before that clarity (although I also doubt we get full clarity after the election). […]
October 30th Biotech Update
Not much to say about the sector as we continue in the range and are a little higher today as we move towards the upper end of the range. Of course, it is always nicer to be near the higher end than the lower end but as always the expectation should always be that we […]
October 29th Biotech Update
Tell me if you have heard this before but the sector appears to be range bound. There is nothing that has happened to indicate anything other than a range bound market, On the positive side, we have moved away from the lower end of the range and are much closer to the middle but I […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
Heading to the lower end of the range today. I suspect I am going to sound like a broken record as we bounce around this range. I keep noting that we will breakout of the upper end if we get some M&A but we also cannot ignore the possibility that we breakdown. We are in […]
October 22nd Biotech Update
Pretty slow to start the week. Not a ton of news that would really move stocks let alone the sector. I think we are probably going to drift around in a range pretty correlated with the broader markets. While there could be some really good data that could move the sector, I still think the […]
October 18th Biotech Update
A pretty good week all things considered. Certainly a move higher this week (assuming we do not give it all back today but it does not seem that will happen). I would not say that we are in an uptrend but have moved to the upper end of what looks to be a range. I […]
October 15th Biotech Update
A good start to the week that we should ideally build upon. We are certainly heading to a period of strength for the sector (or at least should be). It was the last quarter of last year in which we got all of the gains for the year. It is setting up to be that […]
October 11th Biotech Update
Hopefully we can end the week on a high note both figuratively and literally. I still think that we probably need M&A to pick up for the sector to really catch a bid. I do not think we necessarily move lower but it really is time for some deals. Of course, the Fed was a […]
October 10th, Biotech Update
We certainly seem to be setting up a range bound market instead of that uptrend that I ideally thought could develop. While not the best case scenario, it is also not the worst case. I think the lack of news and M&A might be stalling the market and perhaps we need the return of deals […]
October 7th Biotech Update
Perhaps we are trying to setup a higher low but the sector seems to be struggling a little to get a lot of traction. I do not worry too much about it as long as the recent low holds but we have been hanging out at these levels for a little too long for complete […]
September 30th Biotech Update
We are at a place where we should bounce and we did get a nice little rally to start the morning (after starting lower). Ideally that should be built upon today and later in the week. The goal would obviously be to put in a higher low and then use that move to a higher […]
September 24th Biotech Update
We are hanging out at levels that should be support. Perhaps the Chinese stimulus will be a risk on sort of trigger that is enough to keep the sector above the support. I do not think that we need to accelerate higher but simply bounce from these levels even if it is a slow grind […]
