Looks like we are clearly having the bounce that everyone has been expecting (expect during the height of the selling where everyone expected the market to go to zero). This should have fairly significant legs even if it is a dead cat bounce. At this point the conservative stance is to stay agnostic about the […]
GWPH: A Compelling Story
GW Pharma’s Tuesday morning R&D meeting looked pretty good. Efficacy data were released for 58 patients with full 12-weeks of epidiolex treatment- 40 of whom have been treated for 16-weeks. The total safety database consisted of 151 patients who have received any drug. Data from this larger pool of 58 patients- double that from the […]
MRK – A Falling Knife Or a Golden Opportunity
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) -NYSE Many speculation going around the huge drop in MRK’s share price in just one week, dropping from the $60.18 (closing on 10/08) to reach the low of $52.49 today, but bouncing back sharply to trade around the support line $53.44. Some speculation of De-risking as we get closer to […]
October 16 Biotech Update
The market continues its weakness but I am certainly encouraged that small caps are out performing. They were an early signal on the way down and so are potentially an early signal on the way back up. Of course, it could just be funds who were short are raising cash but I am not convinced […]
Biotech Survey Results- Number 1
This is the first report on what I want to be a fairly regular set of surveys. I want to keep the surveys short to maximize participation as the more responders the more relevant the results. I also plan on regularly doing the question on market direction and top three, so over time we will […]
October 15 Biotech Update- The Alibaba Top and Abbvie Bottom?
ABBV broke the market! I say that only half in jest. The prospects that ABBV will walk away from SHPG is triggering heavy selling in SHPG and there are a number of large funds invested in SHPG not use to losing 20%+ on a position in a day. In biotech that is an unfortunate consequence […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 30 (10/14/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: CEMP:Top line (efficacy/safety) […]
Sarepta at World Muscle Society: Follow-up
The only new data provided by Sarepta were various measures of lung function, including, including %predicted MIP, MEP, and FVC; all of which demonstrated stabilization through 144 weeks for the 12 boys in the treated population. Individual patient data were once again provided, this time at the 144 week time point. As the trend has […]
Biotech Survey
As a way to aggregate views of the sector and companies in the sector, we are going to periodically survey investors. Please take this short (3 questions) survey and we will release the results later this week when we have enough responses. Thanks. https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/XG8W75Q
October 13 Biotech Update
It looks like we started the week in rally mode but last week certainly shows how quickly that can change from day to day just as today changed quickly as well. I feel like the market is Schrodinger’s Cat at this point. On the one hand, we are at support that has been very strong […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I am still not convinced that the market is done correcting. Even if we have another rip roaring rally, it just seems like the path of least resistance over the near term is lower. In fact, I would not be surprised if we are not beginning the long awaited 10% correction. If that is the […]
CNAT – A Quick Chart Update
Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT) –Nasdaq CNAT was trading within a downtrend channel since June 16th after reaching the high of $9.90, finding a base around the $6.00 weekly support line as mentioned several time at Chimera’s twitter private feed and was moving side way in a consolidation mode for two weeks. J: $CNAT bouncing 8.5% […]
October 8
It was basically a neutral open in the market this morning with more green than red. While I would certainly prefer a market ripping higher, it seems like a sharp short covering rally is not going to halt the down trend. A slow grind higher as buyers enter the market seems better but after the […]
October 6 Biotech Update
The market is OK this morning with biotechs not the strongest sector. That is not completely unexpected given the 60 Minutes story on cancer drug pricing. As such you would expect a little bit of weakness early but I am curious as to see if this is simply reflex selling or something more sustained. 1. […]
SRPT- A Squeeze In The Making
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)-Nasdaq Sarepta is preparing for a busy 4th quarter ahead of the NDA submission as confirmed again by the company’s CEO Chris Garabedian during the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on September 10th. We received guidance in April from the FDA that outlined a very clear path-forward, which resulted in a plan […]
SRPT and SAGE: Quick Notes
Nice 36-month Natural history study (or “Pane Study”) in Duchenne published essentially confirming what’s pretty much already known- that boys age 7 and over decline more rapidly than those under 7. They had previously reported 24 month results. This study and the Eteplirsen study are largely comparable. Average age of the older boys subgroup are […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 29 (10/2/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: CEMP:Top line (efficacy/safety) […]
October 3 Biotech Update
We are finally starting to see the snap back rally and the question at this point is going to be the sustainability. Ideally we would like to see increasing volume and closing near the highs and at this point my base case is that this has some legs over the near term. What I find […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Surprise, surprise but the markets a not great (again). While we are not seeing the selling (yet), there is still not a lot of buying going on. We did get that additional move down I was expecting but I still have the sense that the path of least resistance is lower but we are probably […]
GW Pharmaceuticals: Quick Update
Investors are waiting impatiently for GW Pharma’s December R&D day. The most sought-after information is updates on the Epidiolex Expanded Access Program in Dravet Syndrome. A previous analysis involved 27 patients; there are now 100 boys being treated as of the third quarter. Even if a significant number of patients are excluded as data immatures, […]
