A much better market today than the past couple of days. Over the near term I suspect the market is set up for a fairly significant bounce. Of course, the normal caveats all apply and we need to see follow through this afternoon but my base case is a nice recovery for the market which […]
January 6 Biotech Update
A good start to the day with the market slightly higher but as always we need to see how they end as yesterday was a rough day and odds are more selling is on its way. That being said the sector held up exceptionally well and was a clear outperformer. I suspect the excitement heading […]
January 5 Biotech Update
It was a little more quiet on the news front than I would have expected but still some positive news to discuss as well as provide some color on my 2015 small cap views. I am going to use both CEMP and CNAT to start the discussion as they highlight a couple of interesting points […]
CBSTZ: New developments for Cubist CVR
A quick update on CBSTZ the Cubist CVR. Today Cubist filed an 8-K notifying CVR holders that it intends to purchase all the CVRs at $0.059225 on February 2, 2015. This is known as a “Failure Purchase Notice”. Below is a link to the 8-K: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/912183/000110465915000010/a14-26868_48k.htm This outcome is listed as a possibility in the […]
January 2 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the New Year and it is only a matter of time until we start seeing facts talking about years in which the market opened higher end positive X% of the time. In any case, it is nice to see a positive start to the year and it will be […]
Chimera Research Group Catalyst Summary for December 2014
At the end of each month Chimera Research Group provides you with a monthly summary of notable catalysts that have been completed during the past month. DECEMBER 2014: 1) AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) announced that the FDA approved Viekira Pak (ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir & dasabuvir), their next generation oral treatment for patients with chronic genotype 1 (GT1) hepatitis C […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 36 (12/30/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: RMTI: I remain […]
December 30 Biotech Update
A drifting day in the market but with a negative bias to start. It is hard to read too much into the movement as the volume is low and there is little news out there. I am going to spend the next couple of notes previewing 2015 to a certain extent. I will start with […]
December 29 Biotech Update
The sector has recovered from the brutal sell off in no small part related to a recovery in GILD. As I noted last week, the sector needs GILD to stabilize/recover to move higher and so I am not surprised to see biotechs move higher in sympathy with GILD. Why is there such a relationship? GILD […]
December 23 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly having problems. As I noted yesterday, you should be biased towards raising cash (and going short if you are interested in running more of a market neutral book). Even ABBV who is the hep-C “winner” cannot catch a bid as the market is reasonably discounting not the fact that ABBV will […]
December 22 Biotech Update
It was a weak start to the sector and I suspect that may be a popular start to these notes as the sector seems to have lost some control of pricing power. I am going to spend today talking about the ABBV/ESRX deal as it has significant implications not over for the hep-C market but […]
December 19 Biotech Update
After a set of very strong rallies, it would probably be constructive for the market to trade sideways for a bit but the pressure for managers to chase may be too great as their benchmarks are that much higher after the recent rip. In any case, it was a relatively benign open to the market […]
December 18 Biotech Update
Another rally in the making as we are snapping back from the oversold conditions. It was only a matter of time for this snap but the bigger question is how the market builds upon it. Ideally, this gets the market to new highs with the worst case scenario being we put in a lower high. […]
December 17 Biotech Update
I think we remain in a macro environment and it is increasingly difficult to interpret the recent moves. For instance, why are ABBV, ENTA, and GILD all going down? What has caused that relationship to breakdown? Is it macro related, end of the year portfolio adjustments, or something else? Along the same lines, why are […]
December 16 Biotech Update
It is a macro world and we only live in it. Short term moves are going to continue to be driven by oil and now Russia and there is not much we can do about but look for the development of bargains. What seems interesting is that the large cap biotechs are underperforming many of […]
December 15 Biotech Update
A slow news start to the week and perhaps we are getting into the holiday doldrums a little early. In addition, the Santa Claus rally has been missing and that seems driven by the collapse in oil prices. This is obviously a boon to consumers around the globe and should be a tailwind for global […]
December 12 Biotech Update
The market is weak to open as a follow through on the selling yesterday. This feels like a reversal day but it is way too early to tell but either way I think we are going to get a sense of how stocks are going to trade into the end of the year. A day […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 35 (12/11/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: RMTI: Last week […]
December 11 Biotech Update
As I noted yesterday, the market seems to have no memory day to day and despite a bad open and close, the market is higher today as if nothing happened. That is fine as it is also taking the biotech sector higher and there may be some slight outperformance with the SMID names but it […]
December 10 Biotech Update
It was a slightly negative open to the market but certainly more benign than yesterday where the market was able to come back. It may be the case that we are in a Europe driven pattern where there is selling pressure when the European markets are open but that drag is lifted once they close […]
