February 6 Biotech Update

Well, I can honestly say that on Wednesday I did not think the sector would be looking this good on Friday. The economy seems to be improving, the macro (outside of the Greek noise) seems benign, and the sector seems to be shrugging off the hep-C discounts. I am a little surprised but you also […]

February 4 Biotech Update

So it looks like the sector wants to go lower. While there can be any number of explanations the proximate cause is the GILD report, so I want to go over that in detail and trace out what it means and does not mean. 1. Why is GILD down? I think this is the simplest […]

February 3 Biotech Update

It has been a bad start to the week for sure. The macro is getting better and biotechs are significantly worse. We are treading into very dangerous waters. Catalysts are going to slow dramatically. The market has to digest a lot of secondaries. And headlines out of Washington are putting pricing once again into the […]

January 30 Biotech Update

I want to write this quick to get it out as I spent the morning taking the children to the dentist, so I have a late start. The market is bad (again) but this is really nothing new. This churning is really giving gristle to the bulls and bears. Bears are going to argue it […]

Catalyst Watch – Vol. 3, Edition 2 (1/27/15)

Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: *** Check out […]

January 28 Biotech Update

Another day with no clear leadership in the space but with a general bid to the sector (until the entire market sold off). I am a little surprised at how long this has lasted but to be fair the sector continues to move higher without clear leadership. What do I mean by the lack of […]

January 27 Biotech Update

A bad start for the market in terms of earnings, economic data, and price action. It appears that FX and the capital spending decline coming from oil prices is creating a significant headwind. Despite the gap down, biotechs were basically unchanged if not higher. That is quite the odd scenario as risk off should hit […]

January 26 Biotech Update

It has been a mixed start to the week both in terms of the macro background and also stocks within the sector. It seems like both are looking for new leadership (to the upside or downside) and I still lean towards the next move being higher but it remains a low conviction view. On the […]

January 23 Biotech Update

It has been sort of a mixed bag with the sector despite some decent macro tailwinds with the European QE program. I am not saying the sector has been bad but I would have expected it to take more of a leadership position in the move higher whereas it seemed more to have been dragged […]

January 21 Biotech Update

The markets recovered nicely yesterday and there seems to be some slight follow through today with the rumor that the ECB is going to do 50B Euro/month QE. That would be on the low end of the “surprise” estimates and I am not sure how that would be perceived. Ultimately I expect some volatility and […]

January 20 Biotech Update

Not the way you want to start the week with the sector going down with the rest of the market after a weak gap higher. Even more problematic is the severe weakness in the high flying momentum stocks like KITE and BLUE. The fact that these are underperforming can be read as an early warning […]

Revisiting the Bubble Debate

With this week’s moves in the market and with the JP Morgan Healthcare conference finished, I think its time to bring up the debate again about whether or not biotech may be in a bubble. While most are familiar with the outstanding sector performance, lets just put it into context a bit. Since the March […]

January 16 Biotech Update

Well, this morning started a little better but I am much more interested in how the market ends as we were due for at least a short term bounce. Ironically, the new focus on the Swiss currency has removed it from oil which is doing well (perhaps investors burned by the Swiss need to cover […]

January 15 Biotech Update

I am back from JPM and will be highlighting what I learned over the next couple of days. I do want to reinforce what I was noting before and that is this market action speaks of a black swan coming. The quick drop in oil put a lot of pressure on positions. The action with […]

Catalyst Watch – Vol. 3, Edition 1 (1/15/15)

Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: RMTI: I sold […]

January 9 Biotech Update

A weak start to the day but there seemed to be a lot of volatility, so it is hard to get a sense of exactly where the market wants to go. I suspect the early pressure is lower but a late day rally would signal that bulls are once again in charge- meaning that the […]

January 8 Biotech Update

A great continuation for the markets but I do not see a lot of great action in the biotech sector. We spiked higher but those original moves have not held and we seem to be retracing the gaps. If those gaps in the sector cannot hold with the markets running, then that is certainly an […]